Saturday, June 6, 2009

NFP Non Farm Payroll and the EUR / USD

Have you heard of NFP or Non Farm Payroll whispered among forex forums?

About how caution should be employed as it is coming?


This IS a good advise.

I won't explain myself what NFP is as Investopedia has a good explanation of it which i quote here "

What Does Non-Farm Payroll Mean?
A statistic researched, recorded and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding the following employees:

- general government employees
- private household employees
- employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals
- farm employees

This monthly report also includes estimates on the average work week and the average weekly earnings of all non-farm employees.

Investopedia explains Non-Farm Payroll

The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. The non-farm payroll statistic is reported monthly, on the first Friday of the month, and is used to assist government policy makers and economists determine the current state of the economy and predict future levels of economic activity. "


Looking at this we can see that it is indeed an important piece of information. Volatile moves of 100 - 200 pips within minutes have been known to happen for the EUR/USD.

If you are a scalper or simply don't have evergreen SLs of 200pips or more, you WILL be taken out.

Yesterday was a NFP day and i have extracted the chart from the onset to an hour later.

Big moves you will notice and it is a ONE MINUTE chart.

The first minute would have easily taken out SLs on both side of the trade.

I stay out of NFPs. Always.

Remember, usually very first Friday of the month.

Trade safely.

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The Koala System Review Week of 1 June 09

This week is not a fantastic week for the Koala System, however if you followed true to the pip, it should be a mildly gain week

1) Start of the week is good. Following the parallel, a net of a few tens of pips should be there


2) Looking at 2, it is a classic example of a low volume tight ranging market identified by the Koala. Good for scalpers but not for me.

3) With the US / LONDON overlap, where most moves occur, there was a potential fo
r a ride up. However as stated, long should be entered only on dips from M5. Otherwise you will risk entering at the top with little pips to harvest

4) Another move identified by Koala. Down instead.


5) Another tight range market day identified by Koala. If you insist on trying and have insufficient SL, the crazy whips would have whip you off. Why is the
market so tight? ECB rate day

6) Lastly NFP, the major event every month. I would have stay out thorough as NFP is known for its whippy styles. Better safe than sorry.


Did you make some pips? Or have you found a better improvement? Share !




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