EUR/USD pauses for now

Rain fell on the bulls' party today and cut short the post RBA rate hike party.

The currency pair has slipped from the 1.47+ to the 1.46+


It is amazing how the opening of the day hangs around the intersection of the steep trendline and the 1.4719 previous high.

I love it when my charts become a work of art!


Likewise, the S&P 500 appears undecided today as well and is a doji for now.

Technical resistance of 1060 serves it's purpose currently.

Oil retreated back to the, yes you guessed it right the $68+ levels while gold remains defiant at the $1044 heights.

***

While the bulls and bears lock in mortal combat ( We are talking about countless of margin accounts here :P ) for now, i have read disturbing views, well at least disturbing for me, that the break of the currency and equity correlation seems to be happening.

In short, in future it may no longer be " S&P 500 is up today, we may see buying pressure for the EUR/USD "

I guess when the time comes for a tearful farewell to these 2 market instruments , i will just have to take it in my stride and find new clues. Sob.

1.4719 is a well fortified area after all and the bulls may expect resistance here again.

Any bearish advance will need to break today's S1 at 1.4660+,

These days, the commodity currencies apparently seems to be leading the battle against the US dollar.

Hence watch out for their cues to begin advance or retreat. They may be a possible leading indicator for now.

***

I day dreamed today. I imagined myself having a beach house. The sun is great and no worries when it comes to making ends meet.

The sounds of waves are wonderful and i have a pet koala or two.

You know what? DREAM ON.

I think statistically, i am more likely to get a margin call than this dream of mine.

Trade Safe ;)

EUR/USD pauses for now

EUR/USD brushes off resistance

I woke up today looking at my chart and had no memory of the non farm payroll.

The currency pair shrugs along, oblivious to the fact that unemployment is bad.

In the previous article i said that the "risk aversion" fundamental days may be over soon.

Perhaps. Perhaps. Perhaps.


A steep trendline has developed and it seems like sending the EUR/USD to the skies.

Note the turning point of the trend. NFP Friday.

I like to imagine alot and imagine that this is the sign that folks are done with the US Dollar!

Scary to think of it when my dividends, investments are in USD :(

Our friend the S&P 500 happily takes a stroll in the park riding on the breeze of positive sentiments.

The surprise rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests good economic outlook and brought up equities and commodities.

Needless to say, the US Dollar was denied entry to the party.

Oil approaches $70 while gold makes a HIGH of $1038!

This bears much significant.

Especially when we know that gold is usually inversely correlated to the US Dollar.

***

The bullish momentum seems strong as they defeated the previous high of 1.4719 easily.

Next in line should be major line 1.4800.

They are definitely aided by the positive sentiments following around the world.

S&P 500, oil and gold are all gaining, giving triple reasons for selling pressure for the US Dollar.

Should bearish momentum develops, expect first line defenses mounted at Monthly R2, 1.4670+

Do note that ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is scheduled for a speech later this week and do keep a look out for pro- US Dollar statements should the current EURO value be undesirable for the EU.

***

Some of my readers commented that i seem so hyper at the forums and twitter. Frequent updates and posts.

Yap that's me!

When i am on to something, my passion sets me up like an excited rabbit. Perhaps even a nuisance to some.

I clocked only ten hours of sleep for the past two days as i was reading articles, looking at charts, happily interacting with readers, newbies, oldies, people who like me, people who find me a nag, people i know, people i do not know and do not wish to know. LOL

I better sign off here before i start another round of typing. The next time you see me and i am like this, give me a knock on my head and say CHILL !

To those that do not like my style, my sincere apologies but i really can't please everyone. :(

By the way, i finished the FREE add on Left 4 Dead campaign Crash Course .. . on NORMAL haha.

Trade safe.

EUR/USD brushes off resistance

EUR/USD ignores NFP

The currency pair gap up over the weekend.

The de facto rule of the market is that gaps will usually be closed.

It does not seem likely for now.


Having broken the 1.4600 resistance during early trading, 1.4600 serves as a support now.

The equities bulls have staged a comeback and seems determined to break 1040. They are aided by the positive news of expansion for the service industries in the US.

Oil heads towards $65 which may put buying pressure on the US dollar.

Gold remains above $1000 which may put selling pressure on the US dollar.

Mixed clues from these 2 departments.

***

I find it very peculiar that despite the bad data for the non farm payroll, the market chose to apparently ignore that with the equities party.

Being at an decade high unemployment rate is something to be reckoned with.

I also noted that for the first time in almost a year, a negative release from the US apparently did not spark risk aversion but instead caused the other currencies to raise instead.

This may mark a return to "standard" fundamentals, no longer the "risk aversion" fundamentals.

I will be watching keenly for more confirmation.

Traders watching the G7 meetings closely have noted a lack of comments on US dollar weakness and have apparently take that as an approval for further dollar weakness.

Bullish pressure on the currency pair will bring the next major resistance to sight at previous high 1.4719.

Any bearish attempt will need to regain 1.4600.

***

A few of my readers told me that having twitter updates may be good. I hear you and now, not only am i on twitter, i set up a feed too.

You can find the links to the left.

Don't let my hard work go to waste alright? I spent an hour trying to figure twitter out lol

Alright it is past midnight now and i have not finished my chores for the day.

Good night.

Trade safe.

EUR/USD ignores NFP

The Koala System Review - Week of 28 Sept 09

Ok, NFP came and went.

If you were following my threads and saw my gentle reminder, you would be spare of the horror !


Boxed in red, NFP served us an almost 200 pips whooping whipsaw within 3 hours.

Definitely not Koala's style.

Other then that, Koala had 4 potential opportunity windows this week.

Koala loves slow trending price actions and these were.

The initial pink box was highlighted as a potential danger zone.

This is what i like about The Koala System as it seeks to identify possible danger zone too.

When you see whipsawing or totally steep koala lines, it is not a sign to start the party!

It screams " You really want to do this? The price may whipsaw back any moment ! "

Patience is a virtue :)

Trade safe koala buddies!

( P/S this is a M15 setup and i like the way the 200EMA helps to show potential peaks :) )

The Koala System Review - Week of 28 Sept 09

EUR/USD closes below 1.46

Non farm payroll came and went, took out margin accounts as usual.

Life goes on.

Now our currency pair has decided on a position.

Closing the week below 1.46 is probably significant.


A bearish channel has developed and is right on track so far.


The S&P 500 has broken 1040 and with much bear power i must say.

Having tested sub 1020 on Friday.

Read up on my article on the EUR/USD and S&P 500. I am taking this clue as a possibility of further bearish momentum for the currency pair.

Oil and gold lingers around $68 and $1000 respectively without much clear direction.

***

If the bearish momentum proceeds to develop into a major push, we may be seeing oil and gold on the retreat soon.

I am very interested in the global equities and S&P 500 scene as they rely very heavily on sentiments.

Traders returning from bbqs, crystal clear beaches may realize things are not that great anymore and exit positions come Monday.

This may cascade.

Alright, enough of the doomsday talk and looking at a technical aspect, the bear channel for the EUR/USD seems pretty much in play.

Any attempts by the bulls to regain lost ground will need to overcome major line 1.4600 followed by smaller outposts like the 1.4650 region.

The bears will need to overcome the lower trendline of the previous bull campaign right around the 1.4500 area now.

By the way, the commercial properties scene has not been given much headlines but foreclosures there are happening and this may be a time bomb.

***

While asking folks hows the weekend coming along, one of my best trader buddy said he was enjoying a great bbq and having whiskey.

How i wish i am doing so. Nah i am not a superb trader to have some privileges.. yet :P

I'll spend my time reading up on articles and preparing articles for you my readers.

Hey i noticed that i am beginning to write my articles like a war battle plan. Hahaha, might as well since forex is always a battleground between bulls and bears.

No one violently protests ya?

Trade safe please! Oh.. enjoy your weekend.

EUR/USD closes below 1.46

EUR/USD looks bear

THE EUR/USD threw a temper today and dipped 70 pips within 15minutes during the ASIAN SESSION.

No doubt any folks gambling on a long with up-sized risk meals would have dropped their jaws.

Let's take a look at the front page news!

EU's Almunia said eurogroup to discuss euro appreciation ahead of the G7 meeting.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet joined in the party later and said “disorderly movements” in exchange rates have “adverse implications” for economies.

The end result?

Ta-Da !

The currency pair looks battered and exhausted. Bulls are having difficulty holding on to their grounds no doubt.

Parties aside, from a bull's view point, i would be concerned about the condition of our market clue, the S&P 500.

US manufacturing dropped and jobless claims went up. Around the world, missiles are flying and water rising. Most unfortunate and negative in sentiments.

Oil hangs around $68 and gold left the $1000 club

***

I said that the currency pair might range as long as we held above the critical levels of the various market clues.

And it did, or tried at least, breaking above 1.46 and getting slammed back down as negative news starts to churn out like an assembly factory.

Now that our main ally, the S&P 500 had retreated pass the critical zone, conditions seems to be heading towards a drop.

Nonetheless, the market is never 100% predictable.

If non farm payroll shows a worst than expected result, it may be the final blow.

Nothing much to stand in the bears' way till the 1.44 region.

If after today's practical lesson in setting stop losses does not wake you up, go to the forums and ask how many folks lose their accounts today and how did it happen.

***

The new and FREE Left for dead campaign is great and gave me a few scares. Did not manage to complete it as i was mobbed in the second stage. Am not going to try today because i need to have a serious discussion with Ms Sleep.

Ah, the weekend is almost here.

Trade safe ok?

EUR/USD looks bear