EUR/USD eases off

A good day to you!

How was your mambo jumbo NFP ride? It was almost hundred pips of whipsaw.


.


The non farm payroll in US came out slightly worst than expected and with that, it pushes the unemployment rate in the US to 10.2%




As we can see. the S&P 500 is currently in a bullish momentum



Traders have apparently ignored the fact that unemployment is 10.2%

Gold has risen, currently around $1095.



Oil has dropped to almost $75. This may suggest further USD losses.



***

As we draw to a close of the trading week, hopefully you had a green week.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment is up next week and any worst than expected release may bring back risk aversion.



Ben O Trich Indicator says 2 VS 2 and hence we may consolidate. In fact, looking at the chart, this was the main action yesterday too.

The currency pair is now consolidating in the EUR/USD area of 1.4843+ to 1.48653+

Any breakup by the currency pair will bring 1.4910 to play.

Bears will need to contest with major line 1.4800 if they want to takeover the price action.


***

It is almost 3am now and i am very tired!

But finally, the weekend is here. What are your plans for it?

Trade safe.

*My buddy Casey loves to help newbies in forex trading too so visit him today!

EUR/USD eases off

EUR/USD climbs up

Good day to all.

I LIKE IT WHEN MY PLAN GOES WELL x 3

It seems like the Ben O Trich Indicator did fairly well.

The EUR/USD did move up a bit.

As we get closer towards the NON FARM PAYROLL MAMBO JUMBO, i will be looking towards booking profits for my short term trades.





The currency pair climbs up and tests 1.4910+. Having done so, it retreats to just below 1.4900.




S&P500 enjoys it's bullish momentum, going beyond strong line 1060, currently testing the region. Be on the look out since this is a technical resistance, tomorrow is NFP and tomorrow is profit taking friday.



Gold in the meanwhile has eased off to be just under $1090.



Oil remains bullish, currently at $78+.




***

Folks, i can't help but to say this every month. Non Farm Payroll can be unpredictable and if you are caught in the wrong side of the fence with poor money management, your account may be wiped out.

Unemployment rate is at a high and as long as the NFP decreases each month, the unemployment rate goes up higher!

We may see risk aversion if the numbers are bad.



Bullish momentum will need to clear the 1.4910+ area first.

Bears pushing the price down will need to clear the 1.4865-43 strong zone.

Ben O Trich Indicator says:



Due to the nature and importance of NFP tomorrow, we may see risk aversion appearing if numbers are bad.

The unemployment rate is not getting better and the FEDs has commented that it will keep interest rates near zero for “an extended period” and specified for the first time that policy will stay unchanged as long as inflation expectations are stable and unemployment fails to decline.

Very much may depend on the NFP numbers as a better than expected release may raise positive sentiments too.


***


Folks you like the new features? A chat box, a QnA area? This is all part of my hope that all koalas and newcomers to forex have a place to chat and learn together.

Hope you folks will join in and help one and another.

You know what? TOMORROW IS FRIDAY !!!

Time to cash out those pips for a nice cold beer :P

Trade safe!

EUR/USD climbs up

EUR/USD ping pong

Hi Guten Tag bonjour konnichi wa moin moin boa tarde buenas tardes vanakkam

ok my first attempt to be international!

Sorry if i did not include your hello but if i do all, my post will be pages!!

hmm i better stick to. Hello folks! How is the day treating you? Fine i hope.



The currency pair is currently bouncing around and this is expected since we have
several important news this week.



Before i proceed to talk about our market clues, i will like to present to you the

Ben O Trich Indicator !

Exclusive to TheGeekKnows.com and not available at the other partner websites! YES YOU ARE AT WHERE IT ALL HAPPENS!

Basically, we will go through our usual clues, the S&P 500, Oil, Gold and lastly what me The Koala / Geek / Freak whatever feels about the current chart action as per usual right? ( Btw, the last factor is the most inaccurate in my humble opinion. HA ! i like putting myself down)

Now if that particular point is probably beneficial to the USD, we will award 1 Bernanke !


If the particular point is probably beneficial to the EURO, we will award 1 Trichet !


If we have 2 V 2, we may get consolidation

If we have 3 V 1, probably strength towards the currency with 3.

If we have 4 V 0, most likely towards the currency with 4. ( Remember NO HOLY GRAIL hence no 100% )

Now read this important statement.

The Koala / Geek / Freak / TheGeekKnows.com will not be held responsible for anything due to the use / reference / peek / view / whatever of this indicator. Forex is risky and you may lose your money, house, dog, cat, shirt, pants, etc.

Ok ready? Set? Go.

The S&P 500 has been bullish for a few days now and is currently testing 1060. If we clear this line, 1080 maybe next. This may suggest risk seeking is on the move again.


Our buddy Oil, is currently at $79. It seems to have made up its mind and its telling me that it wants to join the big boys on top! Watch out though as $80 may be a strong line.



Gold is our winner today as it is currently at $1092+. We all know that Gold is usually inversely correlated to the US Dollar and hence, you know the drill !



***

While all clues suggest a upside move for the EUR/USD, i will see it with caution. We are all currently near strong lines across the markets and this may further promote the consolidating trend before the non farm payroll.



Any bullish momentum will need to take out the strong region of 1.4843-65.

If the bears take over the show, major line 1.4800 will be in the radar.

And the result is...drum rolls* TADA





The overall sentiment today is more of a risk seeking nature.

We have got good news from companies like Ford helping up the markets too.

A word of caution though is that the we still have mambo jumbo NON FARM PAYROLL and Federal Funds Rate etc etc coming up this week and being the safe trader i am, i will be looking for opportunities to book my profits.

My buddy Casey loves to help newbies in forex trading too so visit him today!


***

Ah it is past midnight for me and once again sleep stood me up. I wake up in the middle of the night too to check on things.

Have i been thinking too much?

In today's rat race, when can you finally sit down relax and not think about earning your bread and butter?

You know the song? " dreammmmm ... dream dream dream.... dreammmmm " ;)

Trade safe.

EUR/USD ping pong

EUR/USD slips

A Good Tuesday to you!!

How's work? Try to like it alright. Unless your first million from forex is coming soon:P !

Now the RBA's rate hike came and went. Nothing much of a positive sentiment to be gained from there.

Well we can't blame anyone for this. Did you know 9 banks failed in the latest clean up in US bringing the total number of failed banks to 115?

Now that's negative sentiment for you.



EUR/USD dips further down towards 1.4600.

On a further outlook, don't you agree it looks somewhat consolidating as well?



Our market clue the S&P 500 is displaying consolidation patterns too, currently hanging around 1040.

As i mentioned earlier, this week is full of news, including NON FARM PAYROLL !!!! Ops i did it again. Apologies. While traders wait for more news, we will probably not see any major move.

Oil is currently around $76 and gold.. GOLD? OH MY $1076+

Reports of the Indian Central Bank buying gold from the IMF to diversify it's foreign reserves may have sparked speculation or panic buy towards gold.

As gold and the US dollar are usually inversely correlated, we may see more US dollar weakness


***

Notice that the price is close to 1.4665? This is one of the lines on my alert list and we may see the currency pair interacting around that area.

If the S&P500 continues to consolidates while waiting for more news, we may see similar movement in the EUR/USD.

Bullish attack may need to overcome 1.4719 before further advance while bears have 1.4665 and major line 1.4600 up next.

Do keep in mind that CIT's failure is not to be taken lightly and be prepared to evacuate your positions when necessary.

Add to that alertness an extra strong dose of proper money management and you should be fine.


***


I saw the moon today! It is bright and very round today. It reminds me of the night and the night reminds me of... TWILIGHT ! Are you going to catch part 2 of the series at the movies?

I thought that the first movie was good. Interesting and stylish in it's own way.

Trade Safe! (P/S leave me a comment to let me know if you like this new "indicator" ok? It helps me to know if i am pissing you off ! )

EUR/USD slips

Trader's Lament. Emotions While Trading

Original song by a day trader.

It is about his emotions while trader.

YES ....E M O T I O N S

Trading with emotions is a big no no as it can cause you to close trades early, take excessive risks, etc.

See for yourself and find yourself laughing when you find familiarity in the lyrics :P

( Thanks to my buddy Jm4x @ FF who posted this song to cheer me up ! )




Books that touch on emotions while trading. Control it now!

               

Trader's Lament. Emotions While Trading

EUR/USD is undecided

Good day!!

Are you blue today? I am having a bluish blue monday!! thats double the blue!

I think i caught a minor flu bug again and my eyes simply can't stand the computer monitor these days.

Arrrgghh.

What do we have here today?




Our currency pair is undecided!
Bouncing up and down the past few trading days like a ball.





Likewise for the S&P 500, after bouncing a few days, it apparently continues to follow the pattern by moving up towards 1060. I will be watching 1060 for signs of failure.

Gold in the meanwhile has shot right up to $1061+. The last time we were at these levels, the EUR/USD went above 1.5.

Oil decided to join the undecided group and is currently at $76+.


***


Well well well. Pending home sales for US was great! Clocking in at 6.1% vs the expected 0.2%.

Home sales are always good for the economy in the way that it sparks a long chain of consumption. The construction, the renovation, the consumer electronics and the list goes on.

Now, if those home sales comes with loans that are almost guaranteed default X years later resulting in foreclosures, that's not good :P

Since this belongs to the "good news" category, risk seeking activities have been spotted. Based on the recent risk aversion theme, this will cause risk seekers to sell their USD for other higher yielding currencies.

Indeed the EUR/USD jumped from 1.47+ to 1.48+ in a matter of minutes.

Before you start to celebrate your much over risked longs, ( ok i apologize. I am sure some of you do follow my teachings and maintain only 2% risk in trades ) do note that this is the week of important news, including the ALMIGHTY NON FARM PAYROLL.

Sorry i just had to do that.

And we all know what happens when extreme data is released. You can kiss your technical, fundamental, PRAYnical AND HOPEamental or any mix of analysis goodbye!

By the way, CIT filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy and according to a Bloomberg report,

"Common stock owners could be mostly wiped out, and the U.S. Treasury Department said it won’t recoup much, if any, of the $2.33 billion of taxpayer money that went into CIT, the largest firm to go bankrupt after getting a federal bailout."

Ouch.

Keep a close look at the sentiments and be prepared to run if the merry making ends and folks realized that the recession is not quite over yet.

Bullish conquest will need to take out the double lines area of 1.4843+ to 1.4865+.

Bearish momentum if developed either because of negative sentiments or the technical pattern of the past few days will need to pass 1.4800 and then 1.4719.


***


You noticed the books on the left of the blog? These are forex books being sold at Amazon. I always feel that reading is good and do feel free to browse those titles.

One of my favorite is Currency Trading For Dummies no kidding! I read it a few times when i just started.

And for those of you who feels that this is just a cheap way to earn some quick bucks from referrals, shame on you! Notice i only mention BOOKS.. CHEAP BOOKS not some super duper 100% LOSE money EA or SYSTEM yah?

Ok sorry. I was banging my keyboard so hard as i hate my good intentions being misunderstood always.

You have a good day and please if you always treat my ending phrase like a joke, this is crazy news week.. TRADE SAFE

EUR/USD is undecided

Unemployment in the US

Good day,

while we enjoy our weekend today, let us not forget the almost 10% of folks in the US who are having " perpetual " weekends.

Yes they are unemployed.

Unemployment Rate in US.

Source: Bureau Of Labor Statistics Data


Noting from the chart above, the US's unemployment rate has been increasing since early 2007 and has hit a accelerated pace since the crisis of 2008.

The unemployment rate is currently at the 10%'s doorstep.

Domestic consumption is very important in an economy.

With decreased consumer spending due to the unemployment rate, there may be a "drag" effect on any attempts to boost the economy.

With regards to investors from other countries, an ailing economy and employment situation will most likely not be viewed upon with favor.

Presuming that overseas investors reduce their holdings in the US due to the poor economic outlook, this may lessen the demand for the US currency and hence the USD weakens.

In fact, if you were to view a chart of the US Dollar index, you will notice that the US dollar has been weakening these years with the exception of the risk aversion theme of the 2008 crisis.

As of now, choose any ten people of working age in the US and we potentially have one who is currently unemployed.

This alarming unemployment rate may potentially be a force to be reckoned with in time to come.

Unemployment in the US

The Koala System Review - Week of 26 Oct 09

Good day to all!

The Koala System had a good week as the week was mostly trending on the M15.

Did you manage to harvest some pips?




Right at the start of the week, if you had been alert and ready to take some risk, you would have catch the early train ticket south.

If you notice, we were presented with multiples opportunities throughout the week, ending it with a last ride south on Friday.

I will like to remind all that The Koala System is not meant to be a fast hit and run system and therefore you can see that the trades average out to be once a day.

I am exploring the use of the 200EMA as an overall trend indicator.

If the price is below it, we take only shorts. Above, long.

Stay tuned and trade safe!

The Koala System Review - Week of 26 Oct 09