EUR/USD Daily 07 Jan 10

Good Thursday to all.

Thank god it is Friday tomorrow!

I am so drained from my work. I rather stare at a screen of candles in green and red!



The EUR/USD took a beating today and currently rests on the 1.4325 area. A mixture of poor EURO releases and risk aversion in my opinion caused the dip.



S&P 500 suffers from depression at the moment too.

Oil remains above $80 in view of demand in the cold winter.

Gold is currently at $1130+ after having a bullish run.

***

While we had a few poor EURO releases today, i am speculating that risk aversion may also have a hand in this current market down beat.

Greece's problems will not go away be itself and something needs to be done.

On the US side, Bloomberg reported that the Federal Reserve said in the minutes of its latest meeting that the U.S. economic recovery might require additional stimulus measures to be sustained. This probably caused risk averse folks to jump out of their riskier trades. Furthermore, although the US Unemployment claims came in better than expected, we have to observe that it is still higher than the previous release. Tomorrow's highlight of the week, Margin Call Friday US Non-Farm Payroll is something one wouldn't want to mess around with.

Lastly, it has been reported that the ECB has begun to cut it's balance sheet while the Feds are still increasing it.

Bullish pressure may have us climbing towards 1.4362 and 1.4400.

If the bears pursue, we may have 1.4260.

***

I am having a headache now. I need to make an appointment with Ms Sleep soon as we have been spending far too little time together. Arrgghh.

Oh, folks caught in the bad weather, do take good care ya?

Trade safe.

EUR/USD Daily 07 Jan 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 06 Jan 10

Good day to all!

We start this day in a world with a stronger US Dollar.



EUR/USD took a dive and went as low as 1.4280+ before it recovered to the current levels.



S&P 500 looks a little choked currently too as it fights to soar towards 1140.

Oil in the meanwhile remains above $80, benefiting from the misfortune of the "frozen" folks in the US. Not an actual indication of a new phrase of recovery in my opinion unless this sustains beyond the cold winter.

Gold climbs slightly higher at around $1127+.

***

Now who turned off the light on EURO today?

Well we have the EURO Industrial New Orders coming in at -2.2%, definitely nothing to be positive about. Furthermore, the Greece problem grabbed the headlines again as there were talks of mounting problems and a NO BAIL OUT comment made by ECB's Stark. Greece rejected the speculations of a bail out.

Lesson time! We have a strengthening of the US Dollar, we have some hesitation in the equities and throw in some negative news. What do we have?

Risk Aversion!!! Yup. This old friend of ours may have surfaced to stake some claim after being out of the scene for sometime now. However i doubt it is strong at the moment since Greece did follow up with a "positive" comment. Monitor the equities and currencies movement to track our friend ya?

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI just came in slightly lower than expected. We may have some disappointment sell off of the US Dollar here.

Next up we have FOMC Meeting Minutes and we know that folks will be reading, scanning, magnifying, ignoring and over reacting to the statements made. Be careful of spikes.

We have another round of US Unemployment claims tomorrow and Margin Call Friday draws nearer.

Bullish comeback may test 1.4400/45 while bearish forces may target 1.4325 and 1.4260.

***

I was thinking if the economic calender and currencies quotes are useful to you my koala reader. Am also thinking of how i can make this place a better tree for you.. give me some opinions alright? Perhaps more financial data? A very good koala reader / friend of mine suggested it. I think it sounds cool!!

Trade Safe!

EUR/USD Daily Review 06 Jan 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 05 Jan 10

A great Tuesday to you!

Time for a Koala who is too full of itself.



I simply love it when my chart works! The EUR/USD made it's way up earlier to test the resistance 1.4480+ i mentioned in yesterday's daily review.



Looking at the S&P 500, it is currently in the green and it reminds me of the good old days whereby the relationship between the S&P 500 and EUR/USD was apparently clearer. Next stop may be 1140 and let's watch out for it.

Oil seems to be benefiting from the cold weather and it remains above $80. I mentioned often that if it takes off from $80, a new phrase of recovery may be here. Let's see if this can be sustained when the cold weather blows over.

Gold in the meanwhile looks set to reclaim it's title as the big winner. The weakening US Dollar has it hovering around $1120+.

***

While the US pending home sales came up rather bad, the reaction was surprisingly mild.

Well i always said that if you want to try to make money in forex , you need to do your homework! Apparently during that month ( November ) the report was for, many folks held back to purchases as they were waiting for an extension of a tax credit for first time buyers. The big boys probably did their homework and expected the report to be rather bad and hence that may be why apparently no adverse reaction was seen. Besides that, this report also shed some light that home sales may be affected when tax incentives finally end. Considering this, the economy may after all be not as positive as one might imagine.

Home sales is something we need to pay attention to as it is important to the economy.

We have important releases tomorrow including the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. With the bad employment situation in US, employment related releases may be a touchy subject for folks and hence we need to be prepared.

Bullish pressure may bring us a test of 1.4445/80 again while further bearish assaults may bring us to 1.4400 and 1.3962+.

Remember, proper money management may be the only holy grail to make money in Forex.

***

My 12 hours work days are starting again! NOOOOO. I can no longer laze around, hug my tree, play Left 4 Dead 2 ... arrghh the list goes on.

Sometimes i wonder.

Is society / modernization good after all? If things are back to the basics, perhaps one may no longer have the fear of being jobless or penniless. Basically just live off the land.

Sounds good? Trade safe koalas.

EUR/USD Daily Review 05 Jan 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 4 Jan 10

Blue Blue Blue.

Welcome to another Monday complain article about how everything is blue!

Folks i warned you previously that the first working Monday will be celebrated with blue! Hundreds of emails waiting to be read. Bosses demanding work done yesterday. Whats new?

Even the weather in US is coooooooooooooold.



Oh. Folks long on the EUR/USD are probably not blue then. The long green candle brought the longers a good pip harvest.



Our market clue the S&P 500 bounces off sharply the support at 1120. Don't you love it when MY charts work.

Ok apologies. Let me calm down this blue in me... *Breathes deeply

Moving on.. Gold caught the ride up too, currently at $1120+. Probably due to the sudden US dollar weakness.

Lastly oil trades around $80 as the cold weather in US brought increased demand for oil. I mentioned previously that a clean break of $80 ( which is a strong resistance ) may indicate a new phrase in the recovery. Let's monitor closely as oil may be a clue to the economy's health.

***

SO WHAT BROUGHT the EUR/USD up?

For starters, the EUR Final Manufacturing PMI increased again, leading investors to speculate that recovery is strong. Furthermore, with the holidays behind us now, risk seekers are out on the hunt again. Reports earlier of China’s manufacturing expansion happening at the fastest pace in more than five years probably helped to boost the sentiments.

Having said so, we have an overflowing menu of economic releases this week and hence any adverse result may turn the tides. I also think it is critical to remind you that this coming Friday is... MARGIN CALL FRIDAY !!!! Yes. The day US Non Farm Payroll is released. Read The Story of Tom to find out why Non Farm Payroll is my preferred choice of a margin call story.

Earlier the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected. Be prepared for possible reactions to this too.

Further bullish conquest may test 1.4445 /80.

If the better than expected release from the US ends up affecting the investors' choice of currencies, we may see a bearish test of 1.4400 followed by 1.4362.

***

Thank you for enduring with my bluish attitude. I feel blessed knowing that i have readers like you who do not look down on me just because i am a grumpy koala.

Hey have you played Left 4 Dead 2? During my vacation i had some time for it. Pretty interesting. Have you ever wondered what will YOU do if something like this happens in real life?

s c a r y

Trade safe and harvest those pips!

EUR/USD Daily Review 4 Jan 10

The Koala System Weekly Review 28 Dec 09 - 31 Dec 09

Hi all,

welcome to another weekly review of The Koala System.

The Koala System is basically an easy system for forex traders of all experience! It's main aim of it is to help prevent one from trading against the trend or from trading under adverse conditions.



This week, The Koala System correctly identified what i was warning about in my EUR/USD Daily Reviews and EUR/USD Weekly Reviews.

The holiday season did bring about magnified reactions to economic releases and unexpected spikes. These regions are boxed in red above and one shouldn't be trading then. Classic indicators like the 3 koalas attempting to flip multiple times and the price action touching the blue koala were rampant.

There was one opportunity identified by the system. However it was unlikely that one could harvest the full 50 pips as the 200EMA was right below. The 200EMA provided us a warning of a potential support and it was correct. While the 200EMA belongs to Koala Labs ( Place for experimental ideas ) now, it seems quite ready for graduation!

In view of instances whereby The Koala System did produce an accurate signal but is unable to run the full course of 50pips, i once again will like to gently remind that it is always good to move your Stop Loss to protect profits.

It is always better to gain less than to lose all.

Trade safe and you may want to read the latest EUR/USD Weekly Review for a heads up.

The Koala System Weekly Review 28 Dec 09 - 31 Dec 09

EUR/USD Weekly Review 28 Dec 09 - 31 Dec 09

Hi all,

welcome to the first post of 2010 :) With the New Year brings new possibilities and hopes. Let's embrace life and take each challenge as it comes.



This week was a short one. The ranging situation i mentioned last week did turn out to be so. Such conditions are very challenging and hence proper money management is highly critical.

Based on the first circle, we seem to be due for more ranging price action. However past performance is not a definite indication of the future and hence prudence must be exercised.

We may be seeing low volume conditions next week as institutions and investors may still be having their holidays. Low volume conditions bring the possibilities of unexpected spikes and magnified reactions to news / economic releases.

Adding on to the uncertainties, next week's menu of economic releases is stacked high! We have the likes of German Unemployment Change, Industrial Orders on the EURO side and Pending Home Sales, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Payroll on the US side. Each of these releases have the potential to ruin your day and this is just the gist of the list. Check the economic calender at the bottom for more information.

We may see trading bounded to the 1.42-1.45 range. Any break of either side may indicate a new momentum. In the meanwhile, continue to monitor the equities and gold for clues.

Trade safe.

Read up on more Forex articles. My buddies' blogs are a good read. Casey tackles the EUR/USD at his blog while Forex Crunch covers most of the currency pairs!

EUR/USD Weekly Review 28 Dec 09 - 31 Dec 09