The Koala System Forex Weekly Review 01 Feb - 05 Feb 10

Good day!

Hope you are having a wonderful weekend :)

The Koala System had a great week! The signals were clear.



While much patience is required with the no trading zone for the first half of the week, Koala users received a wonderful harvest when two opportunities presented mid week. These were clear signals as the koalas were apart and the price action didn't test the blue koala. A full harvest of 50 pips was possible. If you let the trade ran with a trailing stop loss, 200 pips might be up for grabs. This was due mainly to the risk aversion and you can read more about it in the EUR/USD Weekly Review.

The week ended with the main event, margin call Friday! The US Non-Farm Payroll. A user told me that he suffered a loss as he traded just a mere hour before the NFP. Folks do note that NFPs can have far reaching effects as you can see in the spikes of the no trade zone i boxed above. I usually stay out of margin call Fridays! View my latest NFP report to see the crazy action.

The 200 EMA is doing good after it's graduation from Koala Labs. I have circled in red areas where the price interacted with it. The 200 EMA will continue to serve as a possible indication of resistance and support lines.

I hope you have a great week ahead and do remember that patience and proper money management come in a package together with The Koala System.

Trade Safely!

The Koala System Forex Weekly Review 01 Feb - 05 Feb 10

EUR/USD Weekly Review by Masoud 7 Feb 10

Hello King Koala and folks.

Good day to you!

Deep Disaster in Greece!

In Greece, the 10 year bond yield was above 7%. This suggests that capital is severely following out of Greece. This is not due to other normal factors like inflation risk, etc.

This week, the central banks declined tend to buy the EURO and personally i feel the EURO does not have good prospects.

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected but it did improved over the previous release. This improvement will benefit the US Dollar, but we may have a little of hesitation with regards to that as it did turn out lower than expected.

With the deficit problem growing in Greece, the US Dollar may raise even more due to demand for "safe assets". It reached a seven months high against the EURO due to sharp reduction in the demand for the EURO currency.

The theme of risk aversion was strong.

The market placed hopes in a better Non-Farm Payroll and was treated with a mixed bag of releases. The NFP turned out worst than expected. However if we were to compare it to the previous month, there was a marked improvement. With the unemployment rate still above the 8%-9% region, i believe that risk aversion may still linger around. Hence even though with this release the unemployment rate dropped, we are not exactly out of the hole yet.

Last week I said that to achieve the 1.35 may be a possibility and i believe with the current risk aversion atmosphere, to reach 1.32 may not be asking for moon. Should the EUR/USD falls below 1.30, I think we may be due for the next crisis. With the government budget deficits and troubled countries, i fear it may be more dangerous and tough than the first wave.

Have a great weekend.

Masoud.

Masoud is a businessman and a Senior Koala at the Forex Factory Koala Thread.

EUR/USD Weekly Review by Masoud 7 Feb 10

EUR/USD Weekly Review 01 Feb 10 - 05 Feb 10

Good day and i hope you are enjoying your weekend so far.

This week bought the bulls some hope in the beginning but ended in a sound victory for the bears.



As we can see from the daily chart of the EUR/USD above, the week began slightly bullish. However by mid week, sentiments took a dive for the negative and dragged the currency pair among with it. The finale was the US Non-Farm Payroll on 5 Feb 10 and after a temporary upside push, the EUR/USD threatened to break the support of 1.3600. It tested the support and eased around 1.3660+ to close for the week,

***

What is causing the major correction seen in the various markets? Risk Aversion comes up among the top reasons. As of now, we do have quite a few issues that are causing apprehension and the market is reacting to it.

• US' Prsident Obama's plans to lessen the budget deficit. It has been reported that the plans includes cutting back spending on various domestic programs and investors fear this may hamper recovery progress.
  
  
• China's moves to curb speculative bubbles and growth is also a causing a cause for concern. Being the world's second largest economy, many investors were looking towards China to lead the global economy out of the gloom.
  
  
• Eurozone deficit problems. Greece was the first to hit the fan. Promising plans to reduce deficits disrupted by growing domestic resistance. Investors usually run at first sight of sovereign problems and indeed funds are flowing out. Spain and Portugal may be next as reports indicate and investors are packing up.
  
  
• A recent article surfaced that a strategist from a major bank states that the US and UK have issues similar to Greece and the fall out in Greece may be a "dress rehearsal" for the two countries.

With the S&P 500 dropping severely these days, risk aversion may be strong and the effects may cascade. Oil is currently back above $70 after a brief stint below $70. As oil may be an indicator to the economy's health. I am placing a high alert with regards to further intrusions below $70.

The G7 meetings over the weekend may bring more insights with regards to future plans and investors will be on a lookout. Next week brings quite a number of important releases. These includes US's Trade Balance, Retail Sales and more. On the EURO side, we have the likes of French Industrial Production and German Prelim GDP. View the economic calender for more.

On a technical point of view, we are below the 200EMA and with it tilting downwards, it suggests bearish momentum. The previous times when the EUR/USD was in the 1.3600 region, the 1.3600 line functioned well as a support and resistance. However do not put all you eggs in one basket and remember that support and resistance lines are never a single pip.

Should 1.3600 fail, 1.3400 may be next. Otherwise, an attempt to climb back to 1.3800 may happen.

Trade safely and practice proper money management.

Read more about the EUR/USD at my buddies' wonderful blogs.

Forex Crunch writes a weekly EUR/USD outlook. It is a very popular write up and he is one of the best.

Winners Edge Trading with his great technical analysis brings about much knowledge to learn.

EUR/USD Weekly Review 01 Feb 10 - 05 Feb 10

US Non-Farm Payroll 05 Feb 10

Good day,

welcome to the monthly US Non-Farm Payroll Report.

To manage expectations, contrary to what it may seem, the main purpose of this segment is to highlight the dangers and risks of trading the Non-Farm Payroll. The koala does not support NFP trading.




While the previous NFP brought us a rush up of almost 200 pips, this NFP seemed subtle by comparison. Or it is?

While the range may not be huge, this NFP brought us swift whipsaws. Within the first half hour of the release as circled, we basically went up / down / up /down. If you were like Margin Call Tom ( Most Read Article 2009 ), you will stand to lose much pips.

The danger does not end here as this pattern surfaced twice later in the day. Tight ranging price action is a margin call magnet!

Possible reason for this? A mix of undecided opinions in the market may be the possible reason. Firstly, the NFP came in worst than expected but the unemployment rate drops to 9.7%. Secondly we have governments in Europe stating that the deficit problems are not a problem but strikes are happening and hampering plans to cut deficit.

A lucky koala reader of mine told me that he traded up when the NFP started and tried to trade up again in one of the subsequent down push. Fortunately he managed to get out of it with no pips gained or lost. However folks, this is not the way to trade!

We need to plan our trades and have proper money management.

Trade safely and i'll see you soon!

US Non-Farm Payroll 05 Feb 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 05 Feb 10

Good day to all.

Yes it is Friday. Hopefully everyone survived the US non-farm payroll.



The EUR/USD dipped sharply and tested the 1.3600 line. While 1.3740 did present a support of sorts as mentioned yesterday, the negative sentiment overwhelmed the defenders.



The S&P 500 continues falling despite the improved unemployment rate of the US. This strengthens the view that the current correction is caused by global problems.

Oil falls below $70 and this is a cause for concern. As oil can be a clue to the global economy's health, a break down may indeed be occurring should it fail to snap back above $70 soon.

Gold has fallen to $1050+, a level unseen since OCT 09. The pressure from the strengthening US Dollar is strong and close observation must be done to see if gold falls below this area of support.

***

While the US unemployment rate became better, the non-farm payroll clocked in worst than expected. The unemployment problem remains a threat and with the current correction underway, i am concerned that it may put a strain on the labor market again.

Over at the Eurozone, the problems of Greece, Spain and Portugal continue to weight down the sentiments like an anchor to a ship.

G7 meetings will occur over the weekend and hence do be careful of possible volatility over the weekend.

As the market prepares for the closure of the week, bullish pressure may bring us closer to 1.3680 while continued bearish momentum may target 1.3550. If momentum fails to pick up, we will probably close the week near 1.3600. Stay tune for the EUR/USD Weekly Review and the Non-Farm Payroll Report over the weekends.

***

It is the weekend and i need to catch up on my sleep. Anyway i did not get a migraine this morning and hence this week will not be remembered as "Migraine Week." A koala buddy of mine was telling me that a newcomer to forex had his account reduced from $5000 to $900 in just 9 days. Am sad to hear this. Sigh. Is there anything else we can do to make folks realize the dangers of margin call?

T R A D E S A F E L Y

EUR/USD Daily Review 05 Feb 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 04 Feb 10

Greetings koalas.

Risk aversion is the favor of the day!



I said the other day that the currency pair seems to follow a pattern of a major bearish movement after a couple of days of slight bullish movement these days and it appears to be playing this out again



The S&P 500 has fallen below 1100, indicative of poor sentiments.

Oil has fallen slightly. At $74+ now, probably a result of a strengthening US Dollar.

Likewise for gold, it values at $1085+ now. Similarly a possible result of the stronger US Dollar.

***

The Greece problem is hitting the fan!

With strikes been planned, recent plans to reduce deficit may be hampered. Investors do not like a troubled country. With strikes on-route, productivity of the economy may be affected resulting in a further breakdown. This may not be the kind of place investors want to be in!

Furthermore, i mentioned sometime back that Spain may join in the troubled club. Indeed, Spain and Portugal are receiving increasing amount of limelight these days with regards to their deficit.

Although the European Central Bank President Trichet said he is “confident” that Greece is moving in the right direction to cut its deficit, the strikes may disrupt the plans and investors are apprehensive.

On the US side, unemployment claims were more than expected. This does not go well since the US is already facing a problem with unemployment. Tomorrow's margin call Friday event, the non-farm payroll will be a release to watch out for. FOMC Member Hoenig is also due to speak later on too and hence be careful of spikes.

While 1.3800 may prove to be a strong technical support, the risk aversion may be strong and if it fails, stop loses may be triggered, opening the way for more bearish drop.

If bullish pressure returns, we may test 1.3880.

Should the bearish momentum overcomes 1.3800, 1.3740 may be next.

***

My migraine is getting crazy! I had it every morning from Monday to Thursday. If i get it tomorrow again, this week will be remembered as "Migraine Week ! "

Did you see the TheGeekKnows.com Annual Koala Report 2009 ?

It had been a great 2009 and i am very excited about 2010. I do not know about you, but i have really grown very attached to this koala site of mine and the koala community. The best part is, although i stay up to 3am at times to do the articles here, i am never tired! When you are doing a work of your passion, you never have to work again :)

Trade safely and do have proper money management. ( YES TOMORROW IS CRAZY MARGIN CALL FRIDAY)

EUR/USD Daily Review 04 Feb 10

TheGeekKnows.com Annual Koala Report 2009

Good day, every important place or organization releases an annual report.

TheGeekKnows.com with it's mission to share to as many forex traders as possible about the horrors of margin call is definitely important!

When you are down with $50 bucks in your forex margin account, who you gonna call? GEEKY KOALA!

*Drum rolls ... I present to you the

TheGeekKnows.com Annual Koala Report 2009


Most Searched Term

For the year of 2009, many koalas found their way here with the help of search engines.



The top search term used is "the geek knows". Over 100 koalas used this term.

The interesting fact? Only around 20% are new visits!

MY DEAR REGULAR koalas!!! Bring the mouse to the add bookmark will ya? :P


Most Koalas Day



August 10 2009 is a day to remember! We had over 700 koalas visiting us on that day. What will be 2010's number? :)


Most Read Article

This award goes to our favorite TOM!!! With a serious title "The story of a margin call. Tom." Who could resist finding out who Tom is?

The fact is Tom is YOU. If you don't practice proper money management!

Over 2000 koalas read this article and learned about the horrors of a margin call.



Relive the moment here :)


Most Exits Article

Well you can't stay in our humble tree 24/7 right? Our award goes to "Hilter had a margin call. He is not happy! " under the Funny Videos section!

I personally have a great laugh every time i see this video. Now don't get a margin call now or else the laughter is on you!

Over 1000 koalas left to roll on the floor laughing after watching this video!



Watch it here... and please come back for the rest of the awards :p


Most Used Browser

The koalas' browser of choice? FireFox!


Almost 50% of the koalas visited us with it. I personally use this too. Yay!


Most Used Mobile Device

Hey, koalas are mobile too. The most used mobile device?

iPhone !!


Most Visits Koala Country

Now would it be Australia? The home of the koalas? Nah....



Over 20% of the total koalas who visited came from the
United States of America !

***

I hope you enjoyed the TheGeekKnows.com Annual Koala Report 2009.

Last but not least, i would like to thank YOU, our dear koala reader.

Without you, TheGeekKnows.com would not be a koala success! I really hope that my articles have helped you one way or another. Remember money is hard to come by and losing it at poorly planned over risked trades is never the way!

Remember to bookmark us and visit us often! I will always be trying my very koala best to write useful and easy to understand forex articles.

Time for our favorite tag line.... Take Care and Trade Safely :)

TheGeekKnows.com Annual Koala Report 2009

EUR/USD Daily Review 3 Feb 10

Heyo Koalas!



The EUR/USD took a dive and heads towards 1.3880.



The S&P 500 falls slightly, having tested the resistance of 1100.

Oil climbs to $75+, suggesting new demands.

Gold falls to $1109+.

***

Who let the bears out? WHOO WHOO WHOO.

Disappointing results at companies like Pfizer probably brought along some negative sentiments. Furthermore, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected.

Remember my comment about how the currency pair usually bear big time after a few days of slight bullish momentum these days? Pay close attention to this technical probability.

On the other hand, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in better than expected. As the unemployment problem in US is bad, a better than expected result in this department will probably draw some attention. This may have helped cushion some of the US equities fall. With this, investors may look towards a better than expected NFP this Friday. Be careful here, margin call friday is not named as such for no reason!

We have the Eurozone's Minimum Bid Rate release tomorrow along with the ECB press conference. Watch out as investors scan the conference for hints of future policies direction. US Unemployment Claims is released tomorrow too. As of all important releases, be careful of unexpected spikes.

I was reading an article about Greece winning the backing of the EU for its deficit plan. While this is a change for the better, watch out for hiccups. Sentiments may recover if more positive developments occur.

Bullish comeback may see us at 1.3940/1.4000.

Increased bearish momentum may have us testing 1.3880/00.

***

I was at a concert the other day and i managed to get great seats. Being up close to the singer is great! Compared to the usual "ants" view of the singer this is superb. Now now now of close things cant be all that good right? INDEED! THE MUSIC WAS SO LOUD THAT AFTER THE CONCERT, I HAD PROBLEMS HEARING WELL FOR A FEW HOURS!

omg. so much for a front row seating.

Trade safely!

EUR/USD Daily Review 3 Feb 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 2 Feb 10

Good day koalas.

How is your week so far? Trading is light and we may know why.



The EUR/USD remains bullish for now. While this is encouraging, just be careful as over the past few weeks, the currency pair usually clock a few days of slight bullish momentum followed by a major bear drop!



Seems like sentiment is picking up as the S&P 500 stays above 1080 for now.

Oil is currently above $73 and the danger of a break down below $70 eases off for now.

Gold has climbed above $1100. I always said that gold is an asset of choice when it comes to stormy weather and this increase in demand deserves attention!

***

With the US Pending Home Sales coming in much better than expected, folks are watching this among the majority of poor releases all over. Furthermore, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is due tomorrow. Let us also not forget the event of the week, MARGIN CALL FRIDAY! US Non-Farm Payroll. Love or hate it if you are at the wrong side of the fence!

With the unemployment problem in US and now Eurozone, folks are probably getting sensitive over job issues. Therefore the releases may produce spikes in the event of an unexpected release.

The RBA did not raise the interest rate for Australia and this is not expected. This will probably hurt sentiment. Maybe not now but soon investors may start questioning if the recovery is just a dream. Remember Australia is one of the first to start experiencing the recovery "symptoms." Yet now she has to pause to take a rest.

Continued bullish pressure may test 1.4000 next.

Any bearish comeback may see 1.3940/1.3880.

***

Do you like songs from the 80s? I LOVE IT. I have been playing songs from then these days. Love the special "effects" and catchy beats. OK I ADMIT. I WAS RICK ROLLED and it sparked my interest in 80s again. Do not know what is rick rolled? google it :P

Trade Safely

EUR/USD Daily Review 2 Feb 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 1 Feb 10

Good Monday blue koalas!

I decide to be kind for once and spare all my bluish grumblings :P



The EUR/USD recovered slightly today and tested the line of 1.3940 +/-.



Our market sentiment clue the S&P 500, is bullish today. Raising above the line of 1080.

Oil remains around at $72+. Oil can be an important clue to the global economy and i will watching close if it breaks down below $70.

Gold is currently enjoying a rally and is near $1100. This raise in value may be sparked by risk aversion. Gold is a timeless currency and is often in demand in times of stormy financial weather.

***

The Greece problem seems to be causing a fallout of sorts. Today, a report stated that investors are pulling cash out of Europe at a record rate. To understand the market, we must understand the investors. Having troubled companies is already a cause for concern but having troubled countries? Investors definitely do not want to risk unnecessarily. With less demand and more supply for the EURO, we know the drill. The value drops. We also need to remember that days ago reports surfaced about Spain too.

The US manufacturing sector expanded at a faster rate than expected and the S&P 500 apparently benefited from it. However do monitor closely if the general negative sentiment overwhelms.

I spoke earlier about gold's raising value. Likewise, i will be watching closely as exceptional demand may indicate that risk aversion in the market is strong and folks are digging in with gold.

From a technical point of view, the currency pair seems to suffers from a big dip after a few days of slight bullish momentum nowadays. Therefore keep this in mind.

We have releases such as German Retail Sales and US Pending Home Sales tomorrow. Both are important and let's stay tuned to observe for signs of a further fallout.

Bullish relief may bring the price back to 1.3940/1.4000.

Further bearish momentum may test 1.3880/1.3800 next.

***

Ah i have a long day at work tomorrow and i only clocked 6 hours of sleep last night! Koalas are never meant to sleep so little:P I am trying hard to have an early date with sleep tonight and do wish me all the best :p

Take care and trade safely!

EUR/USD Daily Review 1 Feb 10