The Koala System Forex Review 1 Mar - 5 Mar 10

Hello fellow users of The Koala System.

Hope you are having a great weekend so far.

This week was a choppy one as the EUR/USD continues to range between 1.34 - 1.38. The US Non Farm Payroll at the end of the week also contributed to the volatility.



Red no trading zones plagued the week as the price action whipsaws.

The 200 EMA continued to serve it's purpose as a warning to potential support and resistance levels.

While The Koala System is an all weather forex system, it performs best during trending situations. With the concerns over Greece and the Euro Zone triggering spiky reactions throughout the week, patience was stretched to the limit.

The Koala System did yield 3 opportunities this week. Having said so, these were not spectacular and barely reach 50 pips.

In view of the recent market conditions, lowering the take profit value to 30pips may yield better results.

Take safely and remember to practice proper money management.

Do read the latest EUR/USD Weekly Review for a heads up of the upcoming week.

The Koala System Forex Review 1 Mar - 5 Mar 10

EUR/USD Weekly Review by Masoud 7 Mar 10

Hello Koala King and folks.

Good day to you!

This week the Greek deficit issue was the single currency Euro's most important news.

With the announcement of a 4.8 billion Euro deficit cutting measure by the Greek government, the Euro gained slightly against the US Dollar. However this issue is not simple. Even if measures were announced, whether will Greece be able to successfully execute all the measures remains as another question.

Furthermore, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland are not in a good position as well and problems may spread to them.

On Friday the the US NFP and Unemployment Rate was better than the forecast. Thus fostering an atmosphere for risk taking and hence high-yield currencies may rise.

In view of the NFP, 2 scenario analysis for March is available:


First scenario:

After the NFP and Unemployment Rate came out better than predicted, the atmosphere will be that of risk taking and hence the climbing of stock markets. On the other hand, I think the euro is hitting a floor. However if the Greece crisis and the possibility of Greece's problem spreading to other countries in Europe takes on a negative turn, it may cause risk aversion and hence push the EURO below 1.34.

Regardless, recent statements by central banks and the US Federal Reserve officials insistence to keep low interest rates for the US Dollar may drive investors to seek higher yielding currencies such as euro.


Second scenario:

In this scenario I feel that after this announcement, a new meaning for risk taking may be a demand for the US Dollar and more positive news may drive more demand for the US Dollar. However this is not due to the formation of expectations of an interest rate hike but rather because the American economy seems to be in a better shape now. Hence demand for growth stocks and risk may increase demand on the US Dollar.

Versus the troubled Euro Zone economy and the UK, American economy does seem to be looking better. This may cause US Dollar assets to be more attractive than the Euro assets. This week if we see further positive news from America, we may see further strength in the US Dollar, causing Euro weakness. The correlation between risk and high yield currencies may be weakening.

***

For Monday, because after the announcement of the NFP on Friday and the subsequent demand for the Euro in the New York session, we may see further Euro demand during early Monday trading in the Asian session and hence even the later European session.

Trade with open eyes and without emotions, because if you trade with emotion, the emotionless market will swallow both your emotion and your money.

Have a great weekend.

Masoud.

Masoud is a businessman and a Senior Koala at the Forex Factory Koala Thread.

EUR/USD Weekly Review by Masoud 7 Mar 10

EUR/USD Weekly Review 01 Mar - 05 Mar 10

Hello Koalas!

Hope you are having a great weekend so far.

For starters, lets take stock of the current situation.



I mentioned in the previous weekly review that we will probably be ranging between 1.34 - 1.38. Looking with hindsight, the price action pretty much respected this range well.

At the start of the week, risk aversion was evident. There were reports stating that Germany did not factor in Greece's aid in the 2010 budget. This apparently spooked investors who were paying close attention to the Greek deficit crisis. Later on however, EU officials commented that they expected Greece to introduce more deficit cutting measures. While this was encouraging, we must remember that the underlying problems go beyond a mere solution. This was seen as the price action became bullish in midweek due to the passing of deficit cutting measures by the Greek government, only to be knocked back down when strikes broke out. The Greek people were not happy that they were made to pay for the action of others. This indeed goes beyond a simple fix.

I noticed there was increasing reference to Britain as being the next Euro country to be implicated by deficit problems. This puts Britain in the category of Spain and Portugal. Possible hot zones. Close monitoring is advised.

US gave us a surprise this week. While economic data was generally good throughout the week, spurring on the ascent of the S&P 500, the US Pending Home Sales fell sharply in the later half of the week. Home sales are crucial to an economy as they can stimulate business. Surprising, the S&P 500 remains unaffected. This suggests positive sentiments towards the US economy. Having said so. do remember that the financial crisis is still pretty much around. Unemployment rate in the US remains a problem. The US deficit is massive too.

Next week brings us more economic data from both sides of the Atlantic. Releases such as the German Industrial Production will probably shed some light on the current economy's status. Towards the end of the week, we have a few important data from the US. Examples include the US Unemployment Claims and Retail Sales.

You can find more information on economic data in the Economic Calender below.

From a technical point of view, we have being ranging for sometime now. This is not a surprise as the market simply do not have the best of choices. A better or worst than expected economic data from either side will probably woo or turn investors away.

The 200 EMA turns bearish but do consider the point that we are at the strong line of 1.3600 and hence any bearish push may see the currency pair moving back to 1.3600 when the momentum quietens.

Much will depend on the developments of the Greek crisis and the various economic data. If there is no adverse incident, we may see the currency pair ranging within 1.34 - 1.38.

Trade safely.

Read more about the EUR/USD at my buddies' wonderful blogs.

Forex Crunch writes a weekly EUR/USD outlook. It is a very popular write up and he is one of the best.

Winners Edge Trading with his great technical analysis brings about much knowledge to learn.

EUR/USD Weekly Review 01 Mar - 05 Mar 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 05 March 10

Good day koalas!

Weekend is upon us soon and yes it is the CASH THE PIPS FOR BEER MONEY day!



The US Non Farm Payroll was slightly better than expected. The EUR/USD received bullish relief due probably to risk taking.



The S&P 500 continues to be bullish and it is nearly back at the level before the current correction.

Oil is hovering around $80. Should we cross and maintain over $80, we may be seeing a new phrase of the recovery as oil can be a clue to the global economy's health.

Gold is trading at around $1138+.

***

While there are reports stating that the EU is in the midst of planning for a Greek assistance plan, strikes continue in Greece and threatens to hamper and derail the Greek government's effort to lessen the deficit. Traders do not like sovereign problems and hence the EURO's value suffers as a result.

On the other hand, the US appears to be the lesser of two evils for now and the S&P 500 is a testament to that. Sentiments are good and the US equities are raising. Today's Non Farm Payroll came in better than expected, raising hopes that the job market is getting better. Do remember though that the US is also facing her own problems. A massive budget deficit and fragile housing market are among the top areas of concern.

As the week comes to a close, bullish pressure may bring us to 1.3680.

A bearish push may see us testing 1.3550.

Stay tuned for the EUR/USD Weekly Review over the weekend.

***

So did you finish your week green? I sure hope you did. Time to enjoy a well deserved weekend :)

EUR/USD Daily Review 05 March 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 04 March 10

Good day to all!

We left yesterday with an apparently positive sentiment. Economic data were looking good and the EUR/USD was bullish.



After topping out at around 1.3740, the currency pair crashed and is currently back at the strong line 1.3600.



The S&P 500 remains rather resilient, and this is reminiscent of the bullish run before the current correction.

Oil remains at around $78+.

Gold is currently trading at $1128+, facing pressure from the US Dollar.

***

While the Greece government came up with measures to reduce the deficit, strikes broke out again and threaten to hamper the action plan. The Greek Finance Minister commented on the need for the Euro Zone to display a clear sign of support by deciding on the specific details of aid. He felt that this is crucial in the stabilizing of the markets.

Over at the US, the Unemployment Claims fell compared to the previous release. While this is comforting, i feel that tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll will be crucial. More clues will be given with regards to the US job market.

Unfortunately, US Pending Home Sales fell sharply. The poor job outlook may have a hand in this and this is not beneficial to the economy at all. Home Sales stimulates the economy with the various business activities associated with a home sales and hence the lack of it may have a dampening effect.

As mentioned, tomorrow brings us the US Non Farm Payroll and all eyes will be on it. Extreme caution to be advised. Other important releases include the German Factory Orders and the US Unemployment Rate.

A bullish comeback may see the currency pair testing 1.3680/740.

Further bearish developments may see us at 1.3550/455.

***

Yay the weekends are coming again! I look forward to spend more time reading on articles and staring at charts. By the way, is anyone playing Star Trek online here? I would love to do so so much but i know i will end up paying the subscription fee and not having the time to play. Sigh. Is it fun?

Anyway i hope you are enjoying this humble website of mine. If you know of friends who is in need of some koala guidance, share with them this website :)

Trade Safely!

EUR/USD Daily Review 04 March 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 03 March 10

Good day koalas!



After the test of 1.3455, the EUR/USD soars towards 1.3680. I love it when my chart works.



The S&P 500 remains bullish. Investors seem optimistic.

Oil is currently trading at $78+. As we approach $80, a close above that may indicate a new phrase of economic recovery as oil can be a clue to the global economy's health.

Gold is valued at $1137+ at the moment.

***

The economic data for today is generally good. This probably set the stage for positive sentiment. Although the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came in lower than expected, it is much better than the previous release. Investors probably saw this as a sign of improving times and increased their risk appetite.

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was better than expected. Being termed as a leading indicator for the economy, this suggest positive developments for the US economy.

The Euro Zone did pretty well today too with the German Retail Sales coming in better than expected. Furthermore, it was reported that Greece passed measures today to cut spending. This includes cutting the bonus salary of civil servants and raising the main value-added tax. Greece is a big concern and hence any relief or even the possibility of a relief brings about a magnified reaction of positivity.

Tomorrow brings us important releases again. For exampe, the ECB will announce the Minimum Bid Rate and the press conference may produce volatility as traders scan the comments for hints of future policies. The US will also release data such as their Pending Home Sales and Unemployment Claim.

Watch out for unexpected results and practice proper money management.

Bullish pressure may test 1.3680 again, followed by 1.3740.

If the bears decide to make a comeback, we may see 1.3600 followed by 1.3550.

***

Koalas, i am requesting for feedback . . . will doing the daily reviews in the 4hour time frame be better? Remember that my site is only good if it helps you koalas and hence do feel free to let me know.

Trade safely!

EUR/USD Daily Review 03 March 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 02 March 10

Good day!

Yes and the ranging goes on...



The EUR/USD tested 1.3455 again and bounced off. While we are still ranging, this frequent test of 1.3455 suggests that folks want to take this pair lower.



An interesting point to note is the S&P 500 continues to be bullish and is currently testing 1120.

Oil is currently $77+.

Gold is now valued at $1120+. This is despite US Dollar strength and it indicates demand.

***

Sentiments are apparently good today as EU officials stated that they expect more deficit cutting measures to be coming from Greece. While this is good news, i will like to remind you that having a plan and executing it is different! Opposition and strikes may hinder the plan. ( Remember only yesterday folks were worried about the Germany Budget's lack of consideration for Greece ? Sentiments and hence price action are fickle. Don't be taken for a ride with it! )

Lately, i have been reading more and more reports on Britain being the next target of the deficit monster. With the GBP's current performance, they may be some truth in it and hence be careful of "spill overs" affecting the Euro.

Over in the US, while the wall street folks are happy and positive for various reasons, sending up the S&P 500 in the meanwhile, the fact remains that we have troubled zones all over the world. They are in a middle of a big one! Unemployment, record deficit, foreclosures, etc. Being positive is good. Being over positive suggests denial!

Tomorrow brings us a few important releases. Euro Zone and German Retail Sales, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Bullish pressure may test 1.3600/80.

Further bearish sentiments may see us testing 1.3455/00.

***

Hey folks, how was your day? While we are so engrossed with our daily lives and forex, i think we should be empathetic towards to the world in whole too. My heart goes out to the disaster in Chile. I hope there can be as little suffering and misery as possible. Hunger is still rampant in the world too and many kids are not full. I donate to the UN World Food Programme on a regular basis and maybe you can consider this too. Do you know with 25cents, the UN WFP will be able to give one child a regular school meal?

Trade Safely.

EUR/USD Daily Review 02 March 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 01 March 10

Hello Koalas!



A bearish Monday indeed! The EUR/USD drops 100 pips, slicing through two supports.



The S&P 500 seems to be recovering from the previous dip. However we seem to face resistance around 1115. Therefore it is good to be prudent and see if the S&P500 will range like the EUR/USD.

Oil remains around $77. Not much of an issue there for now.

Gold trades around $1113. Facing pressure from the US Dollar and uplift from demands due to possible risk aversion.

***

The main highlight of the day?

Reports state that Germany is not factoring Greece aid into the budget for 2010. Investors are probably dismay at this as previous speculations include Germany's bail out for Greece. It is interesting how these speculations work. One moment Germany seems to be helping, next moment not. Later again it seems but yet a while later not. This ding dong is, my friend, the dynamics of a free market. Driven by speculations, sentiments and expectations.

Remember the advantage of forex is that we can ride both sides of the wave! Making money in forex is possible if you play your cards right!

I was reading an article that suggests that Britain may be next after Greece. Britain had been selling great amount of debts and investors may focus on this one day. Furthermore, it was mentioned that the GBP may weaken against the US Dollar as a result of this.

The Euro Zone is a troubled zone.

Over across the Atlantic, the challenges still remain for the US. Unemployment remains a problem, and the budget deficit of US is a big amount. Recent economic data from the US shows a mixture of performance. This suggest that some form of recovery may be happening, but it is fragile.

I mentioned that these days, the comparison of the Euro Zone and US would be one of who is worst off. This seem to be indeed so for now as negative data often drives movement of the currency pair.

We have a rather light on data day tomorrow. However we do have a few due including the Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate that may shed some clues on the Euro Zone's health.

Bullish relief may see us back at 1.3550/600.

Further bearish onslaught may bring us to 1.3455/00.

***

I had a fulfilling day today! Did many work. No blues in sight. However i am tired now. I forced myself to have a date with Ms Sleep yesterday and i intend to do so again today.

Wherever you are in the world, take good care and trade safely :)

EUR/USD Daily Review 01 March 10