EUR/USD Daily Review 7 APR 10

Good day Koalas.

Today is mid week and i hope everyone is still green on profit!

Yesterday brought us bearish momentum for the EUR/USD. Reports stating that the Greek government may be seeking ways to renegotiate the condition of any potential aid solution surfaced. It was reported that this was to avoid the involvement of the IMF and it's conditions for a loan solution. Knee jerk reactions brought the EUR/USD down. Testing the support of 1.3660.



After a slight relief over the day, the EUR/USD once again confronted the support of 1.3660 and is currently below it.



While the US economy apparently enjoys a phrase of optimism, the market is still a global one and it is currently suffering from the effects of the risk aversion.

Oil is hovering around $86 now. As long as it does not go below $80 again, we may really be in the next phrase of recovery.

Gold is .. are you ready? .... NOW VALUED AT $1144. If you read my article on Gold and the US Dollar, you would know that gold is priced in USD. The US Dollar is getting stronger and yet gold is getting higher in value . . . RISK AVERSION! We know that gold is probably an investment of choice when it comes to stormy weather and we may be witnessing that in action now!

***

So what is striking fear across the markets? GREECE !

Probably like how Darth Vader strikes fear in Star Wars, Greece is = to extremely better get out of here before you lose your shirt crazy margin call risk.

Why am i so negative? Cause the market is now! Despite Greece's efforts to plan and promise budget cuts, investors are not taking any chances. Even with the strong words of support from the Euro Zone leaders and IMF, nothing seems to give them the confidence they need.

Concerns about a Greece default is so high that the premium to hold Greek bonds widened to the most since 1998! Investors are probably tired of the words of "support" and they need to see concrete solutions. Greece faces massive upcoming debt redemption and time is running out!

To further complicate the issue, the Euro Zone is not at it's best of performance of late. GDP remained the same for the fourth quarter and this is sending shivers down the spines of many investors. It seems that companies spending and economy activities were cut back. Unemployment remains high too.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is due at a speech later and hence be careful for unexpected moves.

Tomorrow also bring us important economic data such as the Euro minimum bid rate and US Unemployment Claims.

Bullish relief may take us to 1.3400/55.

Bearish momentum may see us at 1.3285 next.

***

Koalas did you notice some subtle changes to the site layout? Part of my continued effort to tidy up the tree.. hopefully as days go by, the website will be cleaner and better.. let me know your opinions ok?

We are facing a new challenge with this Euro crisis and hence stay focused and practice proper money management.

Trade Safely.

EUR/USD Daily Review 7 APR 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 6 APR 10

Good day Koalas.

I hope everybody is feeling good today.

Yesterday, i mentioned that as the market volume was low due to the Easter holidays, the action may not be indicative of the market in general. Nonetheless, the optimism train of the US seems to gain speed as more and more indicators suggest a consistent recovery is under way.

Let us take a look at the EUR/USD.



It seems indeed that the resumption of the global markets suggest a preference for the US Dollar instead as the EUR/USD took a dive. Having tested the support of 1.3660, it seems to be taking a breather for now.



The S&P 500 remains resilient, suggesting strong optimism with regards to the US economy.

Oil is currently at $86+. With the line of $80 behind our backs, we may indeed be looking at the new phrase of recovery.

Gold is now at $1138+. Despite a stronger US Dollar, the gold price has risen a fair bit. This suggests that there may be increased demand for gold, perhaps as a result of apprehension from the Greece crisis. Gold is often a investment of choice during periods of uncertainty.

***

Earlier in the day, reports surfaced stating that the Greek government may be seeking means to renegotiate the terms of any potential rescue solution. This is so as to avoid the involvement of the IMF and it's imposed terms for a loan solution.

The result was probably the knee jerk reaction that sent the EUR/USD right below 1.3400.

Most investors are concerned about the stalling or breaking down of the plans to solve the Greek deficit crisis and hence this report is certainly of much concern. The Euro is already in an unfavorable light and any more adverse news will probably cause more knee jerk reactions.

Moments ago, another report surfaced stating that Greece has denied any consideration of the idea to oppose the IMF's involvement in the solution. while the damage has been done, this may be a window for the EUR/USD to catch a breather and consolidate.

This turn of events did cause quite a stir and it shows clearly that the forex market is unpredictable. Therefore always plan your trades.

A couple of hours later will see the release of the US FOMC Meeting Minutes. As investors will be paying close attention to any possible clues to monetary polices, do be careful of spikes. Tomorrow brings us the German Factory Order and more too.

Bullish return will bring us to 1.3400/55.

More bearish pressure will test the support of 1.3360/1.3285.

***

I am having a flu since Saturday and it seems to be getting worst. Arrrgghh. I need more dates with Ms Sleep.

Does anyone play Star Trek online here? I am a crazy fan of Star Trek but i can't seem to be able to find much positive review information about it.

Take care and trade safely.

EUR/USD Daily Review 6 APR 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 5 APR 10

Good Morning Koalasssssssssssss !!!

You got the blues, i got the blues WE got the blues!!!!!

Last week, we finished Friday with the US Non-Farm Payroll showing the biggest gain of jobs in 3 years and investors definitely welcomed the good news.The US Dollar rose in value in the knee jerk reaction that followed. However we must also note that unemployment remains high at 9.7%. A high unemployment figure will continue to weigh down on the economy.



Looking at the EUR/USD, the bullish momentum triggered by the US Non-Farm Payroll seems to have stopped for now.



The S&P500 continues its climb and this chart above definitely suggests one thing. The sentiments toward the US economy is very positive. However as i always say, sentiments are not always hand in hand in real fundamentals.

Oil is on the rise at $85+. Now that we are above $80, we may be in a new phrase of recovery as oil can be a clue to the global economy's health.

Gold is trading at $1127+ at the moment. It seems to be affected by the climbing commodities prices. On the other hand, it may also be demand due to anticipation of stormy weathers. Gold seems to be a popular investment of choice during times of uncertainty.

***

Many markets are closed today for Easter and hence the bullish climbs we are seeing now may not be indicative of the entire global market. Having said so, the great US Non-Farm Payroll data last week probably spurred optimism about the US and global recovery. Adding on to the party , the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Pending Home Sales were better than expected. This probably adds more fuel to the optimism train of the US! As home sales can be beneficial to the economy, investors should be relieved to see a good figure.

While i hate to rain on the parade, we must be aware of a few matters. Firstly, while the US NFP numbers were good, unemployment rate of the US remains high at 9.7%. This will weigh the US economy down like an anchor. With regards to the Pending Home Sales data, the good data may be the result of a tax credit due to end at the end of April. Investors will be watching how the home market performs after then.

Tomorrow will be a day light on news and hence action may be limited. Nonetheless do note that as markets open up after a holiday tomorrow, the initial influx of orders may cause spikes.

Bullish action may bring us back to 1.3550/600.

Bearish attacks may target 1.3455/400.

***

Ok . . today wasn't a smooth day for my day work. I am probably going to sleep soon. When i wake up, it will be Tuesday! Monday blues only happen on Monday right?

Trade safely!

Folks i urge you to join the FREE sweepstakes and have a shot at earning USD$5 for nothing!

EUR/USD Daily Review 5 APR 10

Masoud : EUR/USD Review 5 Apr 10

Hello Koala King and folks.

Good day to you!

Last week, the risk atmosphere caused the growth in high-yield currencies and the weakening of the US Dollar. This was so despite the fact that investors were still concerned about Europe, including the strike to protest low wages in Romania.

Today due to the occasion of Easter, most banks are closed and trading volume is low.

The fact that the US Non-Farm Payroll NFP finally became positive and it was the best for the past three years suggests that we may expect a stronger US Dollar this week. Today the service sector ISM index is projected to be of a good news as well and hence a rise of the US Dollar against the Euro is not unexpected.

Regardless of the positive news, i believe that the climb the US Dollar has been experiencing is also due to the American economy being in a "better" shape than other countries, including Europe. Currently the US economy has been relatively stable.

US Dollar assets now are apparently safer and have better returns than other currencies.



From a technical point of view as the price is below the trend line on the daily, we may continue to see a falling EUR/USD. Should the price break the trend line on the daily however this may suggest a possible trend change and hence we may consider being bullish on the EUR/USD.

One interesting point about the Canadian dollar, it is equal to the US Dollar and this is also because of improved economic growth worldwide and increasing commodity and equities prices.

Have a good time.

Masoud.

Masoud is a businessman and a Senior Koala

Visit our new home on facebook and be a fan.

Masoud : EUR/USD Review 5 Apr 10

What is forex?

Good day everybody.

Welcome to my new series for friends who are new to forex trading.

At the end of this series, my aim is to help you embark on your journey of forex trading. To foster the right mentality and style.

I call this series, Learn Forex The Right Way Series.


Today with part 1, i am going to touch on what forex is exactly?

Foreign exchange market or forex for short is a global decentralized market for the exchange of currencies. This is unlike stocks whereby trading is done at an exchange.

Forex is a 24 hours / 5 days a week market as trading is ongoing in the various financial centers in the various time zones. While the weekends are not typical trading days, a few centers remain open.

The forex market is a very big market. It was reported that in 2007, the daily turnover of forex trading was in excess of $3 Trillion. London accounts for around one third of the volume, followed by New York and Tokyo.

Forex trading is conducted by all types of participants and for all sorts of reasons. Here are a few examples.

• On the top tier, we have the inter-bank market where large banks and dealers do trading for their customers and also for speculation purposes
  
  
• Next we have large companies seeking foreign currency exchange for their business purposes. Payment for goods in foreign countries, salary of foreign workers, etc
  
  
• Retail foreign exchange brokers, broker platforms where most of us do our forex trading forms a part of the market. Depending on the type of broker, they either seek out the best rates for their customers ( adding a premium on top of it ) or they seek to hedge against positions that they take against customers ( market makers ).
  
  
• Closer to the bottom level, we have money remittance / exchange activities. People seeking to send money to or exchanging for the currency of a foreign country are conducting foreign exchange too. These are usually done through money remittance or exchange companies.

We can see from above that a significant amount of the activities revolves around a commercial purpose and hence the forex market is indeed driven and affected by global events with potential commercial consequences. An economy performing poorly, threat of war, civil unrest, etc.

Forex trading takes place in the form of currency pairs.

For example, the EUR/USD. This currency pair compares how much US Dollar can one EURO be exchanged for. Therefore if the EUR/USD is at 1.4000, it means 1 EURO can be exchanged for 1.4 USD. Typical lot sizes for forex trading is 100,000. This is the reason why most of us are holding margin leverage accounts. Retail brokers provides us with a leverage to enable us to trade in forex. This inevitability increases the risk too.

There you go. I hope you now have a better understand of the market you are trading on.

>> Next in the Learn Forex The Right Way Series
( Myths and Truths of Forex Trading )

Join our facebook page today and be part of our koala community!

What is forex?

The Koala System Forex Review 29 Mar - 2 Apr 10

Good day Koalas.

Hope you are having a great weekend :)

Next week saw success for many koala users who patiently waited for the right opportunity. Complications surrounding the Greece deficit crisis and the downgrade of the ratings of Portugal resulted in a bearish momentum and a harvest of 100 pips was possible.

Let us now review what The Koala System did for us this week.








This week was a fruitful one.

A total of 3 standard opportunities were possible and at least one would have been a 100 pips harvest if the proper trailing stop was used. Despite having the EUR/USD ending the week almost flat, this was possible as the currency pair took wide swings. Optimism towards the US economy battled out with the concerns surrounding the Euro Zone crisis.

Nonetheless we must be cautious as spikes were plenty. Planning your trades well is critical.

One special mention i would like to make is with regards to the third standard opportunity on Friday. Friday was the US Non-Farm Payroll day and hence it was a wise choice if you had decided to stay out of it then. Knowing the horrors of NFP, trades on NFP days always carries additional risk. Therefore only consider trades on NFP days if you know what you are doing and is not risking excessively.

Be patient and stay true to the values of The Koala System. Trade Safely.

Head over the EUR/USD Weekly Review for a heads up for the up coming week.

Not to forget too is the Be A Fan of TheGeekKnows.com Sweepstakes. It is free and you stand to win USD$5. Check it out now!

The Koala System Forex Review 29 Mar - 2 Apr 10

EUR/USD Weekly Review 29 Mar - 2 Apr 10

Good day Koalas. I hope you are enjoying your weekend so far.

In the previous review, we noted that the Greece deficit crisis continued to haunt the Euro. A downgrading of Portugal’s debt around midweek by Fitch Ratings triggered alarms and the EUR/USD broke through a few supports. Many traders were caught by this move and this is yet another reminder that we must always plan our trades well.

Late week, reports started to surface with regards to the leaders of the European Union agreeing to mix of IMF and Euro Zone led aid for Greece. Risk appetite increased.

I cautioned that we need to monitor the Greece deficit crisis for adverse developments.



This week saw the EUR/USD in a tug of war, a result of various market developments.

Early week, the bullish momentum from the previous slows to a trickle. While investors were relieved to see an agreement of sorts between the leaders of the European Union with regards to a combined IMF and Euro Zone aid package for Greece, trouble was just around the corner.

The managing director of the IMF said that if a loan is needed for Greece, it will be on IMF's terms with no special privileges. This is opposite of what the leaders of the European Union hoped to achieve. They would want to maintain control over the process. In the meanwhile, Greek bonds offerings suffered from a low take up rate.

Late week, the Greece deficit crisis took a negative turn as Greece bond yields increased. This indicates that the market is demanding more of a premium to hold her debts due to a possible lack of confidence.

On Friday, the US Non Farm Payroll came out lower then expected. However this is the biggest gain of jobs in 3 years and investors welcomed the release. The aftermath saw the EUR/USD dropping through the chart, in favor of the US Dollar.

However as i was saying, there are a couple of points we need to consider.

As the March increase included 48,000 temporary workers hired by the US government to assist in the 2010 census, these workers will once again join the ranks of the unemployed when the project is over.
Furthermore in view of the bigger picture, the US unemployment rate remains at 9.7%. A high figure unhealthy for the economy.

A report came out late week with regards to China Central Bank's view on the global economy. It believes that the rapid asset price increases since 2009 is caused by the extremely loose monetary policies of the major economies. This is dangerous as these speculative may burst. This may be a challenge as a balance needs to be sought. The containment of speculative bubbles must not come at the expense of the economy's recovery. Risk aversion may happen if China tightens it's monetary policy as investors are looking towards China to lead the global economies out of the recession.

On another note, i would also like to remind everyone once again that the Euro zone crisis is far from a simple fix. With Greece, Portugal and now Iceland implicated, who knows what the future holds.

Next Monday is a holiday for a number of major economies and hence we may see a lower volume. Nonetheless, we have a couple of important news from the US, including the Pending Home Sale. The rest of the week brings us other news such as the EURO Minimum Bid Rate and various speeches by important people including Fed Chairman Bernanke. You can find the list of the various economic releases in the Economic Calender below.

Last week, the EUR/USD stayed true to our range, capping at the test of 1.3600. We may see a range of 1.3300 - 1.3700 this week. However as usual, adverse developments may affect the range.

Trade safely and remember that proper money management is important.

***

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***

Read more about the EUR/USD at my buddies' wonderful blogs.

Forex Crunch writes a weekly EUR/USD outlook. It is a very popular write up and he is one of the best.

Winners Edge Trading with his great technical analysis brings about much knowledge to learn.

EUR/USD Weekly Review 29 Mar - 2 Apr 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 2 APR 10

Good day Koalas. Easter greetings to you!

TODAY IS CASH THE PIPS FOR BEER DAY! yay :)

Yesterday, i spoke of the possibility of trouble brewing again over at the Euro Zone. Greece bond yields have increased, indicating that the market is demanding more of a premium to hold her debts. This suggests that investors are not having much confidence in the Greece deficit issue.

With the US Non Farm Payroll report announced moments ago, let us take a look at the EUR/USD.



The currency pairs dropped sharply in response to the US NFP. It is currently above a trend line that i have drawn and extended from 25 March 10.

Although the S&P 500 is currently closed, the index's momentum indicates a bullish outlook. 1200 seems to be within reach.

Oil is bullish too as it is now trading at $84+. As oil may be a clue to the global economy's health, we seem to be entering a new phrase of recovery.

Gold is currently trading at $1120.

***

The US Non Farm Payroll fell short of estimates. Nonetheless, this is the biggest gain of jobs in 3 years and investors welcomed the good news. The resulting knee jerk price action saw the EUR/USD slicing through the chart, in favor of the US Dollar.

Having said so, there are a couple of points we need to consider.

Firstly, the march increase included 48,000 temporary workers hired by the US government to assist in the 2010 census.When this exercise is over, these workers will once again join the ranks of the unemployed.

Secondly, the unemployment rate remains at 9.7%. The US unemployment crisis is a critical issue and the effects of a high unemployment rate is manifesting everywhere. A poor performing US home sales market is an example.

Bullish relief may see the EUR/USD back at 1.3550.

Continued bearish reactions may target 1.3455.

***

Am excited about the weekend! I am thinking of doing something for koalas who are totally new to forex trading. Something like a series of articles on what forex trading is all about. Learning forex the right way is definitely important!

What do you think? Trade safely!

EUR/USD Daily Review 2 APR 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 01 April 10

Hi all koalas.

How are you doing this Thursday?

I am now on-board a ship for the night but my dedication to you koalas remains :)

Yesterday we saw the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change turn out worst than expected. As the unemployment situation in US is critical, folks were dismayed and a mad rush to sell off their US Dollar holdings probably happened.

Now it is time to look at the EUR/USD.



Bouncing off the resistance of 1.3550, the currency pair heads towards the support of 1.3455.

The S&P 500 is not open at the moment but it closed at 1169.43. The US economy seems pretty resilient for now. Investors are apparently pleased with the US economy and sentiments remains positive.

Oil is currently at $83+. As oil can be a clue to the global economy, it seems to suggest that the global economy may be in a new phrase of recovery.

Gold is at $1116.

***

The US unemployment claim was announced moments ago. Coming in close to estimates, the market moves on. I will like to remind everyone that the main event of the week, crazy margin call US Non Farm Payroll is due to indicate a positive increase in jobs. Should this data fall short or even goes towards the negative region, investors may be worried and risk aversion may develop.

Over at the Euro Zone, trouble seems to be brewing again. Greece bond yields have increased, indicating that the market is demanding more of a premium to hold her debts. I said many times the Greece deficit crisis is beyond a simple fix and hence watch out for adverse developments.

We have more important data coming up next including the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and tomorrow's NFP.

Bullish momentum may bring us back to 1.3550.

Any bearish attack may take us back to 1.3400.

***

Ok koala buddies i need to sign off now. Enjoy your Thursday and i'll see you tomorrow!

EUR/USD Daily Review 01 April 10