EUR/USD Daily Review 7 Jun 10

Good Monday Blues Forex Trading Koalas !!!

Yes. It is a brand new trading week and guess what I FEEL TIRED lol whats new. You folks all know what does a koala do. S L E E P. ( ok i dont get to do so much and hence being tired is a sad alternative ! )

On Friday, we closed the trading week with the exodus of risk seekers. Folks were concerned about the Euro Zone and dismayed about the US Non-Farm Payroll results. In Europe, a government official of Hungary said that Hungary’s economy is in a “very grave situation.” Speculations were aplenty that the crisis is spreading to Eastern Europe. Investors were looking for a higher figure of job creation in the US but was disappointed. Technical strong line of 1.2000 was taken down without much resistance. Just like spears against guns!



Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, we can see the currency pair recovering bits and pieces of it's lost ground.



The S&P 500 is having a Monday blue of it's own and is down for now.

Oil is around $72 for now, lower than recent days. This may indicate bumps in the recovery as oil can be a clue to the economy's health.

Gold is... is.. $1238 !!!!!!! That's a great deal of high there. Either someone felt that gold is going to depleted soon or risk aversion is lurking. ( You folks know i am joking about the depletion right? LOL )

***

Comments regarding Hungary's grave economic situation were short lived as over the weekend, officials sought to correct the statements and do damage control. There seems to be a general consensus that Hungary is not the next Greece. IMF managing director said that he was "surprised" by the comments. EU's Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner said that Hungary made "serious process" and hence suggestions of a default was "misleading". While these perhaps stopped the bears from reigning, the Euro remains challenged. There seems to be reports saying that the German's share of the economic aid package for the Euro Zone may be temporary stopped. Close monitoring should be done for this as it has the potential for being a major sentiment killer.

Over in the US, investors remained depressed about Friday's NFP. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs was issued a subpoena from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The market does not like surprises of trouble and this probably caused equities in the US to fall. The G20 meetings did not yield something concrete for now and mentioned that the global recovery faces significant challenges.

While tomorrow seems to be rather light in the data department, Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to speak later. Investors usually pay close attention to his speeches to extract clues of financial polices. Be careful of unexpected spikes.

From a technical point of view, bullish relief may see us testing 1.2 /1.21. Do note that the H4 trendline is coming down to meet the price. Bearish attacks may have us testing 1.1934/900/800.

***

I am sooooooooooooo tempted to get an ipad. However there is no flash support. I really don't understand why since flash is so popular now. A day without farming in Facebook? NO WAY !

Don't you agree?

Trade safely.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

• Gold can be an indication of uncertainty.
• What is risk aversion in forex?
• Oil may be a clue to the global economy's health

EUR/USD Daily Review 7 Jun 10

The Koala System Forex Review 31 May - 1 Jun 10

Good day forex traders.

It is time to take a look at the potential performance of The Koala System for the past week.

In the last review, i mentioned about the new 30 pips take profit value. While it may result in higher chances of success, it may also result in more stop loss being hit. The reason is because the maximum stop loss we can set is probably 30 pips to maintain a minimal win loss ratio of 1:1.



Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, we see no trade zones for most of the week. The Koala System is a trend trader. Shaky unstable market conditions are not conducive for it. The continued sentiment break down of the Euro Zone brought many knee jerk reactions.

Having said so, this is where the 30 take profit value shines. As 30 is relatively small, this is akin to a precision strike! Enter, harvest the pips and bail out. However as i mentioned, the stop loss is equally small and hence you must be patient and wait for good entries. Otherwise the market will harvest you!

For folks just joining us, you can view The Koala System rules here. Once again, the 200 EMA is an usual addition, often showing the areas of support and resistance.

A long time user of The Koala System mentioned to me that he uses The Koala System as a confirmation that he is not going against the trend when he is trading. At the end of the day, as long as The Koala System helps you one way or another, i am glad :) We are here to learn forex together and hence i welcome ALL suggestions :)

With the market now in a critical stage ( you can read the EUR/USD Daily / Weekly Reviews ), it is important that you practice proper money management.

Trade safely and i'll see you next week!

The Koala System Forex Review 31 May - 1 Jun 10

Masoud : EUR/USD Review 5 Jun 10

Hello Koala King and folks.

Good day to you!

Market at the beginning of the week ahead of the NFP report was neutral.

The Euro fell due to concerns associated with new programs that the central bank in Europe aimed to reduce the budget deficit might prevent economic growth. Fear of slowing growth in China and Australia from the central bank statement, increased risk aversion. Buying activity for the US Dollar and yen increased while EURO was sold. After British Petroleum announced failure in current efforts to curb the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, shares of the company had a historic collapse.

ECB report on the Euro Zone banks and the Financial Times warned about the worsening banking crisis as another important factor in the crash of the the EURO. Central Bank of Europe in a report said that banks probably will not be able to sell bonds as the previous year to finance (due to government policy to reduce debt) and therefore like last year will not be able to loan and that may trigger a credit crisis in the banking sector again. This is an important point to look out for probably in the coming weeks and remains an anchor to the EURO.

The Euro Zone unemployment rate increased 0.1% to the highest level reached since 1998. Statistics show that unemployment increased in Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

The central bank of Iran is selling 45 Billion Euros of reserves for the US dollars but central banks in Brazil, India, South Korea and Japan announced that they have no intention of reducing their investments on the Euro and US Dollars and said that currently there is no replacement for the Euro currency and US Dollars. This talk suggests that they are not Euro-friendly but rather simply do not have an alternative for the moment. This may suggest too that demand for the Euro will not be as before and will decline.

The recent US NFP was interpreted to be weak and the US Dollar and yen were in demand. The Euro fell. Although the NFP figure was positive, it could not meet market expectations.

An article about improving economic conditions in the New York Times mentioned that the economic recovery is very fragile and the challenges are worse than post World War II.

A point to note, the G20 summit at the end of the week may issue certain statements that may cause a forex gap on Monday due to changed expectations.

Australia and Canada were victims of risk aversion and if the G20 did not perform certain actions, next week may be in favor of the US dollar and yen and other currencies will be vulnerable.

The EUR/USD psychological level of 1.2 was broken and probably all the market will follow the momentum and cause an extreme sales of the EURO.

Perhaps this move is a sign that the market heeded some experts regular warnings that recovery is fragile. Once the expectations are not met, bears invade and the risk adverse investors will draw out their funds from the market to escape. The Dow Jones went below 10,000 again, going with the fact that the markets seemed to have a coordinated action with the NFP . ( Equities fell, yen strengthened, gold rose, oil fell, the US dollar and bonds strengthened and the Euro fell. ) The possibility that the movement will continue the next week remains. However it is not clear what will be decided on by the G20 and the impact of it. It is probably better to sell on highs. Many traders, including the trading session of Tokyo, are probably waiting for the opportunity to sell on a correction of the EURO.

From a technical point of view, we are still in a descending channel in H4 and while it remains valid, we should probably be looking to sell the EURO. Important resistance lines will be 1.2150 and 1.2330.

Have a great weekend.

Masoud.

Masoud is a businessman and a Senior Forex Koala. Connect with him at our page on Facebook.

If you are on Facebook, i urge you to join TheGeekKnows.com page. Discussions on forex opinions and trades can be found there.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

• What is risk aversion in forex?
• Non Farm Payroll and the EUR/USD
  

Masoud : EUR/USD Review 5 Jun 10

EUR/USD Weekly Review 31 May - 4 Jun10

Good day forex trading koalas.

I hope your weekend is great so far.

As we wind down from the hectic trading week, it is important we review on our trading decisions and improve on them.

In the last EUR/USD weekly review, we noted the seizure of a Spanish bank by regulators. Together with the concerns with regards to the Euro Zone, bearish momentum resumed. The North Korea military was put on alert due to the conflict with South Korea. This probably caused risk aversion as investors felt that this would threaten the already fragile global economy. The Libor rate spiked, suggesting that banks were reluctant to lend. Later in the week, US economic data was strong and this gave a sentiment relief. China mentioned too that it would remain a long term investor of the Euro Zone.

Having said so, the cut of Spain's rating by Fitch towards the end of the week sparked bearish momentum again. The EUR/USD went below 1.2300.



Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, the week continued to be a bearish week. It is important to note that we have breached the strong line of 1.2. This is a significant psychological support and the break down of it may open up 1.1 eventually. Nonetheless support and resistance lines are never a single pip. Watch out in the event of any attempt to jump back above.

At the start of the week, we had a taste of things to come when a report stated that the economic confidence in Europe worsen in May. The Euro Zone's unemployment rate rose to 10.1% and as employment is one of the main indicators of the economy, investors took this badly. They were also concerned about the spread of the budget deficit crisis.

Midweek, Spain was in the limelight again. Credit-default swaps on European sovereign debt rose and speculations were made that Spain will struggle with $38 billion of debt that is due for redemption next month. This served as a sign of sorts to investors that the crisis is spreading and Spain may be next. In the meanwhile, US continued to post good economic data. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came out above 50, indicating an expansion. US equities and the US Dollar rallied and grew stronger. US unemployment claims were lower than the previous month too. Another indication of a stronger US economy. Things were different with the Euro Zone. Retail Sales came out to be -1.2%. As consuming spending is one of the crucial indicator of the economy's health, this added to the growing list of concerns for the Euro Zone.

On Friday, the US Non-Farm Payroll came out positive indicating a gain in jobs. However the gain was not as much as expected and sentiments were affected. A point to note though was that the majority of the hiring was probably due to temporary workers for the 2010 census. The unemployment dropped to 9.7%. Although an improvement, more needs to be seen to have a positive effect. Over in the Euro Zone, a government official said that Hungary’s economy is in a “very grave situation.” There were concerns that the crisis is spreading to Eastern Europe. The EUR/USD took a major beating and dipped below 1.2.

***

The G20 meetings which ended today may bring a fresh new set of conditions to be considered when trading. The G20 sees 2010 as the year to finalize rules that are meant to bolster the strength of the financial system. Bank recovery is a key point. It was agreed that uncertainty must be eliminated. As this impacts several region, there will probably be a number of negotiations to be done before a smooth implementation can be rolled out. For starters, the US probably wants banks to hold more assets on their balance sheets while the Euro Zone is probably worried this may choke growth. There were also discussions on how can banks be made to pay for bailouts.

The US Treasury Secretary said that the global recovery very much depends on the growth of domestic demand too rather then international demand or in his context, US consumers. I see his point as during such times of crisis, people are already spending less at home, not to mention abroad.

With regards to the current EUR/USD rate, France was reported to be pleased. The previous stronger EURO was mentioned as penalizing exports.

The comments regarding the Hungarian economy sparked panic late last week. A report mentioned that the Hungarian State Secretary said the government can finance its spending and the comments about a possible default were “unfortunate.” While this may be damage control, the final dip we saw was pretty fast, typical of knee jerk reactions. Hence such comments may rein in the drop due to investors getting over the initial reactions.

Next week brings us many important economic data including the EURO minimum bid rate and the US Retail Sales. You can find the list of the various economic releases in the Economic Calender below.

From a technical point of view, 1.2 being such a strong psychological line, i am just not sure if it is ready to give up yet. Based on how the market interprets the G20 meetings, we may see a push back up should investors find that things are not so bad after all. Having said so, the H4 bearish trendline in my EUR/USD daily reviews remains intact. Any further adverse developments may continue to depress the EUR/USD.

If you are on Facebook, i urge you to join TheGeekKnows.com page. Discussions on forex opinions and trades can be found there.

Trade safely.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

• Support and resistance lines are never a single pip.
• Unemployment crisis in the US.
• A weaker currency may help a country's economy at times.
• US Non Farm Payroll
  

Read more about the EUR/USD at my buddies' great blogs.

Forex Crunch writes a weekly EUR/USD outlook. It is a very popular write up and he is one of the best.

Winners Edge Trading with his great technical analysis brings about much knowledge to learn.

EUR/USD Weekly Review 31 May - 4 Jun10

EUR/USD Daily Review 4 Jun 10

Good day forex traders.

Today is cash your pips for beer day! I hope the US NFP did not make it a sad day for you.

Yesterday saw good economic data for the US. Positive sentiments with regards to the American economy were present and the US equities and the US Dollar rose in value. US unemployment claims were lower than the previous month, suggesting a stronger US economy.

Compared to the US, the Euro Zone continued to face negative sentiments. Retail sales dropped to negative for the Euro Zone. Spain is facing challenging debt redemption next month and apprehension was felt in the markets.



Looking at the EUR/USD, a full frontal assault on the 1.2 strong line is underway.



The S&P 500 dips down for now, testing 1080.

Oil is slightly lower at $73.

Gold drops to $1204+. Probably due to the strengthening US Dollar.

***

US Non-Farm Payroll came and left. Life goes on. While the figure released were lower than expected, it was nonetheless positive. This indicated an increase in jobs. ( Although a majority of the hiring was probably due to temporary workers for the 2010 census ) Having said so, investors focused on the less than expected performance of the NFP and sentiments went down, dragging along the S&P 500. The unemployment dropped to 9.7%. It is an improvement but more is needed.

Over in Europe, the trouble just never seems to stop. A government official said that Hungary’s economy is in a “very grave situation.” This sparked major concerns about the Euro Zone budget deficit crisis. Speculations were wild that the crisis is spreading to Eastern Europe. The EUR/USD is severely depressed, hovering around 1.2.

From a technical point of view, a breakdown of 1.2000 will open up the 1.1000 region. Bullish relief may see us jumping back to 1.2100/135. A defeat of 1.2 may see 1.1934 next. Do remember that support and resistance lines are never a single pip. This is clearly seen as the H4 trendline resumes after the EUR/USD took a breather the other day.

G20 meetings are going on tomorrow, be careful of any potential forex gaps.

***

I am a busy bee today. Trying to make the site a better home and community for all, i have implemented Facebook connect :) Go ahead and "like" the articles right from here and have your comments posted straight to Facebook. YaY !!

Trade safely.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

• Gold and the US Dollar
• Support and resistance lines are never a single pip
• Forex gaps
  

EUR/USD Daily Review 4 Jun 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 3 Jun 10

Good day forex trading koalas.

Tomorrow is Friday and remember our weekly target to be green!

Yesterday Spain was talk of the day again. There were speculations that she would struggle with the $38 billion of debt that is due for redemption next month. Risk aversion surfaced and took a hit at the Euro. We might not have seen the worst. In the US, due to people making use of the last month of the tax credit, pending home sales rose. The challenge would be to remain bullish after the end of the tax credit.

In the meanwhile, the EUR/USD continued to test the H4 trendline.



The EUR/USD grew tired of the H4 trendline and stood up for a breather. Trying to escape? Not so fast. The line of 1.2330 capped any bullish mischief and gave me yet another opportunity to do some shameless self praise. I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHART WORKS !!!!



The S&P 500 is attempting to cross the 1100 mark. Success in doing so may indicate a recovery of sentiments.

Oil continues to hover around $74+.

Gold has dropped to $1211+.

***

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI indicated an expansion as it was above 50. This probably fueled positive sentiments with regards to the American economy. The US equities and the US Dollar benefited from this and grew stronger. To further add reasons for a celebration, the US unemployment claims were lower than the previous month. Giving yet another indication of a stronger US economy.

On the contrary, the Euro Zone continues to face depressive sentiments. Retail Sales for the Euro Zone came out to be a shocking -1.2%. Consuming spending being one of the main indicator the economy health, certainly doesn't spell well for the Euro Zone when it is in the negative. With Spain's looming debt redemption next month, there is a sense of apprehension in the markets.

Once again having said so, i will like to remind that the US got the better of the situation because the media and investors are not focused on her problems for now. As i mentioned in my US Dollar Index review, the deficit of the US remains massive.

Among the various economic releases tomorrow, we have MARGIN CALL FRIDAY !!!

Yes. US Non-Farm Payroll and the Unemployment rate is here again. The time whereby prices jump around like hot ants on a pan, wiping out margin accounts happened to be caught with excessive risk. Be careful. Be VERY careful.

Moving on, from a technical point of view, bullish pressure may see 1.2300/330. Any bear attack may see us testing 1.2135/100.

***

I had gastric pain yesterday! A common problem for me. However i have a new medicine that i just bought from the pharmacist. Antacid with anesthetic properties! I pop one into my mouth and within a minute, the pain is gone. Instead, my stomach felt queer. Kinda like a cramp but not pain. Just weird. LOL interesting.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

• What is risk aversion in forex?
• US Non-Farm Payroll.
• Story of a margin call. Tom.
• US Dollar Index Review. May 10.
• US Non-Farm Payroll Review. May 10.
  

EUR/USD Daily Review 3 Jun 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 2 Jun 10

Good day forex traders.

It is mid week, Time for a performance check. Is everyone green so far?

Remember the objective is to finish green every week. No matter how big or small, simply finish green :)

Yesterday we noted that the Euro Zone's unemployment rate had risen to 10.1%. Employment is one of the main indicators of the economy and hence is very much regarded by investors. Concerns regarding the further spread of the budget deficit crisis probably kept the sentiment towards the Euro at a great low. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate becoming the first G7 country to do so.



The EUR/USD failed it's test of the H4 trendline yesterday and continues sliding. I LOVE IT WHEN MY TRENDLINE WORKS!



The equity index S&P 500 continues to display signs of rocky foundations.

Oil remains around $74+.

Gold is slightly lower at $1218+.

***

Continuing on the ratings cut saga, Spain is under the limelight again. For the third day, credit-default swaps on European sovereign debt rose. There are speculations that Spain will struggle with $38 billion of debt that is due for redemption next month. This continues to fuel the concerns and risk aversion with regards to the Euro Zone deficit crisis worsening. As the redemption dateline draws nearer, we may see more adverse reactions. Tighten your seat-belts.

Over in the US, pending home sales came out much better than expected! However where is the party and celebration? The great data is due to folks taking advantage of the last month of the tax credit. Should the home data continue to be good AFTER the tax credit, only then can we celebrate the economic recovery.

Tomorrow brings us many data including Euro Zone Retail Sales, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment claims and more. We may see a rocky day. Therefore it is important to plan your trades well.

While the H4 trendline remains, i will not be placing too much hope on a bullish trend. Do take special care though. If the trendline continues to squeeze the currency pair without the pair making lower lows, there may be a risk of a breakout. Upperlimits for now are 1.2300/330. While the bottom limits are probably 1.2135/100.

***

I got a presentation to make tomorrow at my crazy work. Therefore i need to meet Ms Sleep early today. Hope our date goes well.

See u tomorrow and trade safely.
P/S US NON-FARM PAYROLL IS THIS FRIDAY !!! MARGIN CALL FRIDAY !!

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

• What is risk aversion in forex?
• Plan your trades well.
• US Non-Farm Payroll.
• Story of a margin call. Tom.
  

EUR/USD Daily Review 2 Jun 10

EUR/USD Daily Review 1 Jun 10

Good day forex trading koalas!

It is the second day of the week and lets harvest some pips.

Yesterday, we noted a report mentioned that the economic confidence in Europe worsened in May. The Euro Zone is really not out of the crisis yet and hence budget cutting measures done by countries like Spain and Italy might be a sign of budget problems to investors.





Looking at the EUR/USD, we are hitting the H4 trendline. The question remains. Will the trendline hold?



The S&P 500 is rather flat for now. Yesterday was a bank holiday for the US.

Oil is around $75.

Gold continues to climb and is now trading around $1224. This suggests demand for the precious metal. A possible indication of risk aversion.

***

Just before the EUR/USD turned bullish moments ago, we had a mainly bearish day. The Euro Zone's unemployment rate is now at 10.1%. Employment being one of the main indicators of the economy, is very much monitored and analyzed by investors. Furthermore with the concerns regarding the further spread of the budget deficit crisis, the sentiment towards the Euro is probably at a great low. There are talks that the EUR/USD "fair" value is 1.2.

The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate today. Canada becomes the first Group of Seven country to do so and this is an optimistic sign that the recovery is picking up. ( With the exception of the "troubled" regions )

Tomorrow brings us a number of economic releases including the US pending home sales. Home sales can be a good economic stimulus and hence it will be closely monitored,

From a technical point of view, the H4 trendline remains to be defeated. The current sentiments simply do not warrant much possibility of a strong bullish move. If so we may be looking at 1.2400 next. Should the bears take over the stage again, 1.2200/135 may be next.

***

I was so busy at work today that i forgot momentarily the day of the week. No joke. Does this happen to you? I am kind of worried that perhaps i am aging and my brain cells are getting lesser and lesser LOL oh my oh my oh my.

Trade Safely.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

• What is risk aversion in forex?
• Gold in times of uncertainty.
• Home sales can be good for the economy.
  

EUR/USD Daily Review 1 Jun 10