EUR/USD Forex Forecast Reviews | Learn Forex Trading: 29 August 2010

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

EUR/USD Daily Review 7 Sep 10

Good day forex trading koalas.

How are you this day? Whoever Wherever you are, i wish you well!

Yesterday, we noted two reports with regard to the Euro Zone.

An investment fund manager mentioned that Greece still faces a possible default once the bailout expires in 3 years due to the amount of debt incurred. In another report, an ECB governing council member mentioned that the subject of withdrawing emergency measures will wait until December so as to give the economy time to gather strength. While this might sound like a plan, investors may speculate that this is a sign of weakness of the Euro Zone economy.

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, the resistance area i mentioned yesterday did turn out to be valid and once again i can shamelessly boast ... I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHART WORKS .. FOR YOU !!! Ha ! I am of course a humble koala :)

The S&P 500 has slipped back below 1100 for now.

Oil is losing ground again and is now $72+. Oil can be a clue to the global economy's health and hence care must be taken to see if it goes even lower.

Gold is on the move. Despite a stronger US Dollar, it strengthened. Gold is usually a popular investment during times of uncertainty and hence risk aversion may be present.

***

The latest fear to inflict upon the risk adverse investors is the possibility that European lenders may need to shore up their capital due to their holdings of debts of the weakest economies in the Euro Zone. This comes after the report yesterday that an investment fund manager mentioned that Greece faces the risk of default. Investors are worried that a Greek default may affect all the banks holding large amount of sovereign debts.

The German Factory Orders also came out much worst than expected, prompting investors to drop their risk appetites. The question of the Euro Zone recovery hangs over the market.

I wish to highlight on an article regarding the unemployment rate of the US. It is feared that the current recovery of the US economy may be too slow too sluggish for the unemployment rate to improve. 10% may soon be a reality. I personally feel that the unemployment rate is indeed a crisis and close monitoring must be done.

Tomorrow brings us more Euro Zone news including the German Industrial Production. If these turn out mainly negative, we may see more risk aversion.

Trade safely.

***

Do you love to eat? I simply love it. Well i am not greedy, but i am easily hungry! No joke. After eating a full meal, three hours and i can feel my stomach signaling... heehee just like a koala.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Monday, September 6, 2010

EUR/USD Daily Review 6 Sep 10

Good day forex trading koalas!

Ah to the forex trading koalas enjoying the long weekend of the labor day holiday, ENVY !!!

Last week, we finished the week on a high note. The US Non-Farm Payroll was better than expected and it pushed the EUR/USD up towards 1.2880+. Besides giving me a chance to shamelessly boast again, yes I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHART WORKS, i warned that the US NFP still remained negative which means that people were still losing their jobs. At an unemployment rate of close to 10%, much more needs to be done.

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, the currency pair seems to be facing resistance on the upside. However be warned, never attempt to pick tops and bottoms!

European equities remain mostly green, suggesting positive sentiments in the market.

Oil and gold are both holding at their regions and this may be a period of consolidation for now as the markets sort their sentiments.

***

The US is having a bank holiday today and as of now, the volume is probably low. A couple of Euro Zone reports i will like to highlight for today.

The first is a report by an investment fund manager that Greece still faces a possible default once the bailout expires in 3 years. Greece's debt last year is 115.1 percent of the total output and is estimated to hit 124.9 percent end of year. We all saw how Greece's problem bought the Euro down on it's knees. Should this happen again, we probably need to prepare for a rough ride.

An ECB governing council member said that any plans and discussions with regard to the withdrawal of emergency measures will wait until December. While the intention was stated as to give the economy enough time to gather strength, i am worried that investors may also see this as a sign of a sluggish recovery. Sentiments may be hurt.

Something to note, President Obama is due to make a speech about the economy later and in view of the light trading volume, do be careful of unexpected spikes. Tomorrow also brings us the German Factory Orders data which will shed light about the Euro Zone economy.

Trade Safely.

***

Many koalas advised me and i think it is probably right. My lack of sleep is causing my koala body to protest! Headaches, tiredness, coldness etc. I average 6 hours of sleep per day and i guess having a deficit of ( Presuming 8 hours are needed, 2hours x 365 days a year = 730 hours Which is 1 month of sleep missing a year. It is taking it's toil !!!!! )

GTG TO SLEEP CYA :)

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Masoud : EUR/USD Review 5 Sep 10

Hello Koala King and folks.

Good day to you!

We had a week full of economic news, reports and conferences. The most important news was the US NFP on Friday.

As I said a week ago, important highlights for most traders would be Bernanke comments and certain important economic data. This week we witnessed the announcement of positive economic news and pressure to the market on the upside emerged. Despite negative news later on, the market tendency for loses was not strong. Perhaps due to the fact that a week ago, Bernanke had no need to inject more liquidity.

When three goals in the economy (GDP positive and high, high inflation and controlled, low unemployment) exist, policies for contraction begin. This was for Australia and during this period, the interest rate reached 4.5. This week, the GDP in Australia had a good and unexpected announcement. As the majority of the market is concerned with the world economy slowdown, such news bring about much positivity. Manufacturing in China increased too, adding on to the rise of the high yield currencies.

It is interesting that the world economy is now looking to China despite the apparent lack of transparency in the statistics and the uncertainties. Speculative bubbles may exist in China but the market fails to address it for now, remaining narrow sighted towards the economic growth.

In this week's conference, Mr Trichet said: "Europe Central Bank forecasts economic growth in Europe, has seen an increase, rising inflation seen in Europe, will moderate expansionary policies, as well as past credit growth remains stable" Trichet also said: "again will be not be recession."
The tone of Mr. Trichet did not differ much from Mr. Bernanke. Perhaps they met at the Jackson Hole conference and had influenced each other. LOL

Currently the problems Europe faces is probably less than the US. This may provide more opportunities for the ECB in terms of monetary policies adjustments.

This week the US and Canadian Labor Day on Monday is a bank holiday. Whether the Germany economy continues to improve will probably affect the value of the Euro. Statistics regarding the US trade balance and the major economies like China and Europe will be released this week.

After the release of economic news last week including the better than expected NFP, risk aversion probably lessen. However caution is advised, and statements from the Federal Reserve should be monitored. If continued positive news this week causes the equities markets to rise, we may see a corresponding rise in the high yield currencies.

From a technical point of view you can see in the picture below, the market may range between 1.2730 and 1.3 but there are two scenarios:

Scenario One: If Euro can break the main resistance of 1.30 and break the Daily Trend Line1 and Daily Trend line2 line, probably the next target will be 1.36.

Scenario Two: After dealing with price resistance at 1.30 and descends, it may range down to 1.2820 / 1.2850 and perhaps attempt at another attack at 1.3

Have a great weekend.

Masoud.

Masoud is a businessman and a Senior Forex Koala. Connect with him at our page on Facebook.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

US Non-Farm Payroll Review 3 Sep 10

Good day forex trading koalas,

it is time for another I LOVE TO TRADE DURING THE NFP AND I LOVE TO LOSE MY MONEY review. Yes. I am not trying to be funny but often this is the outcome if trade during NFPs without a clue of what is happening.

In the previous review, there was a move of more than 100 pips. If you were trying to catch a top, you probably would get a hole in your margin account!

The US Non-Farm Payroll Sep came out much better than expected.

The initial knee jerk reaction was massive. While the low to high range of this NFP was only a mere 70+pips, the volatility was high and could easily wipe out trades on both directions trying to catch a top or bottom. This is clearly seen on the chart above as the currency pair went up and down.

While the data was much better than expected, investors who looked deep into the figures understood the issue. It is still negative which means jobs are still being lost. Furthermore, the unemployment rate remains high and this will be a massive anchor dragging the US economy.

The US economy needs to see a complete turn about in the employment market and it is not likely to be anytime soon.

Trade safely.

***

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Hitler had a margin call AGAIN?

Good day forex trading koalas!!

Now remember the popular video i posted Hitler had a margin call back in 2009?

It is 2010 now and Hitler has a plan!

Or at least he thought he had one .. until he had a margin call again!

Saturday, September 4, 2010

EUR/USD Weekly Review 30 Aug - 3 Sep 10

Greetings forex trading koalas!

The weekend is here and i hope you did a great week. Now is a good time to reflect on our trading performance. For the folks over in the US enjoying the 3 days weekend, ENVY !!

In the last review, we noted disappointing economic data flowing out from the US, in particularly the housing market. Investors were worried of a stalled recovery and the idea of a double dip recession was strong. The US continues to display indications of the belief of a "loose" monetary policy to combat the crisis while the Euro Zone generally advocates tightening of controls. The EUR/USD faced the line of 1.28.

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, the US Non-Farm Payroll day pushed the currency pair up away from the 1.28.

The S&P 500 crossed above the 1100 mark, indicating positive sentiments. Having said so, despite the apparent positivity, gold remains elevated at $1250+. Risk aversion may still be lurking around and caution is advised.

***

Beginning of the week gave us weak sentiments as the US personal income fell short of the mark. This brought about concerns as lower personal income means lower consumer spending. Consumer spending is a main driver of the general economy. Furthermore this may lead to more personal debts and complicate matters.

When we approached midweek, US and China both posted good data for their industrial segments. Now, when the largest and second largest economies in the world post positive figures for their economics what can you expect? A jump in sentiments and of course the currency pair. The EUR/USD took an express train right up to 1.28's doorsteps. This was probably urged on by the announced economic expansion of Australia too.

On Friday, the currency pair struggled to break free of the strong line of 1.28. The better than expected US Non-Farm Payroll gave it the extra boost, sending it up right at 1.2890+.

***

I have mentioned this again and again and i will do so again. The US economy is not as robust as you may see it to be. Looking at the latest US Non-Farm Payroll for example, while the data is much better than expected, the data is still negative. This means jobs are still being lost. The unemployment rate is at 9.6% and this means around 1 out of 10 people is unemployed! Not exactly a situation the US economy wants to be in. Other than this, the US budget deficit is still massive and increasing. This will be a burden to bear for many years to come and a number of analysts believe that the US economy may have passed the point of no return, an eventual default.

The general Euro Zone economy is troubled too. A mixture of strong and weak economies in the group complicates matter. Imagine a group of boats with various speeds rowing out of a whirlpool while being chained together.

From a technical point of view, there is a mild bullish momentum after the currency pair hit a low of around 1.26. If the EUR/USD manages to keep above 1.28, we may see it heading for 1.3. Having said so, the 200 EMA looms above and the last time both met, the resistance was strong.

Next week brings us various economic data such as the German Factory Orders and US Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims. The US is having a bank holiday on Monday and hence be careful of low volume conditions. You can find the list of the various economic releases in the Economic Calender below.

Trade safely.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Read more about the EUR/USD at my buddies' great blogs.

Forex Crunch writes a weekly EUR/USD outlook. It is a very popular write up and he is one of the best.

Winners Edge Trading with his great technical analysis brings about much knowledge to learn.

EUR/USD Daily Review 3 Sep 10

Good day forex trading koalas.

Today is Friday and yes it is the end of the week. I hope you have been trading well.

On Wednesday, we noted weak ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data and sentiment was low. Investors were worried about the employment market. On Thursday, better than expected US pending home sales brought hope to investors.

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, we see strong bullish momentum in action since mid week.

The S&P 500 is just slightly under 1100 now, indicating positivity in the market.

In the meanwhile, oil remains around $73+.

Gold remains around $1250, indicating that risk aversion is still lurking with such elevated prices.

***

The US Non-Farm Payroll came out better than expected. While this may seem like a great news, we must dwell deeper into the figures.

As good as it looks, it is still MINUS 54K. This means folks are still losing their jobs. As employment is rated to consumer spending, this will continue to be a drag on the economy. The unemployment rate remains at 9.6% and this is high.

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also came out worst than expected and hence the general market condition is still rather bleak.

From a technical point of view, the currency pair shot up towards the line of 1.2880. I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHART WORKS !! This may function as a resistance.

Trade Safely.

***

Apologies and apologies for missing out on reviews. As much as i want to, i am often sick and there seems to be no way for me to endure the days and nights. Multi vitamins don't really help and i am at a loss! ARRRGGHHH.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

EUR/USD Daily Review 1 Sep 10

Good day forex trading koalas.

Today is mid week and i hope you are harvesting your pips!

In our last review, i mentioned that the lower personal income in the US may bear a burden on the US economy as consumer spending may lessen too. The general sentiment was rather negative as investors worried about the recovery of the economy.

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, the currency pair seems to be done with ranging for now and has since shot up.

S&P 500 is advancing and is now at 1078+.

Oil is around $73+.

Gold remains elevated at $1246+. This is a reminder that we may not be quite out of the woods yet as gold is often a popular investment during times of uncertainty.

***

Better than expected industrial data from both of the world's economic giant, the US and China brought upon a wave of positive sentiments. Investors were negative and this turn out of positive economic data probably triggered a knee jerk reaction. Joining on the party is Australia as the country posted economic expansion from the first quarter.k

On the employment front, the US remains weak as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out worst than expected. While the media is not focusing on this for now, always keep a look out for reversal. The unemployment crisis in the US remains and threatens to derail the recovery.

From a technical point of view, the 1.28 line may be a tough nut to crack.

Tomorrow brings us data such as the Euro Zone Minimum Bid Rate and US pending home sales.

Trade Safely.

***

Do you like Twilight? While i find the story a little too much of a fantasy, i must say the romance experienced by Edward and Bella leaves me smiling to my self. ( P/S Jacob is handsome ! )

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.