EUR/USD ST Daily Outlook 7 Apr 11

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD rally continued and accelerated yesterday, surpassing our target of 1.431, in which we cleared our long positions. The bears finally succeeded in blocking the rally at 1.435. You can see this battle and victory of the bears clearly on the 30-minute chart (the red band). At the current levels our short term bias is neutral. Ahead of the ECB rate decision, in which the European central bank is expected to announce on its first rate hike for more than 2 years, the pair is hovering around 1.431 (the blue band).

We will return to long positions only should the pair break above 1.436.







Trading Idea:

Best levels to enter LONG positions are by breaking above 1.436. Target in such case should be 1.443 with a stop loss at 1.429.
SHORT positions should be taken by breaking below 1.4275 with a stop loss at 1.4315 and take profit at 1.42.


Analysis by Signal Trader – the leading solution for Automated Trading.

Autotrade on Forex, Indices and Commodities.


RISK WARNING: Trading foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College

• Moving Stop Loss Limit when in a loss is a forex mistake

EUR/USD ST Daily Outlook 7 Apr 11

Masoud : Midweek EUR/USD Review 6 Apr 11

Hello koala king and folks.

Good day to you.

The Chinese government increased their interest rates for the fourth time since November. China's monetary policymakers are taking decisions to adjust expansionary policies because the global economy is improving.

Moody Co. reduced the bond rating for Portugal again due to the increased possibility of it to request for financial assistance.

Last night the Federal Reserve committee meeting (Fomc) which held on 15 March 2011 had been published. According to the minutes, Members of the Federal Reserve Bank have announced that America's economy is slowly moving forward and if that does not increase fuel prices, inflation in the current commodity market will not create harm to America's economic growth. In this case the meeting also mentioned on the promising improvement of the employment market although the housing sector due to weak demand is still of concern.

According to reports after the release of Fed minutes, America is planning to maintain policy interest rates to zero and to move in line with the $ 600 billion economic stimulus package (qe2) for the first six months of 2011. However reports are that some members have shown a negative reaction towards a quantitative easing policy for the second half of the year.

It is worth mentioning that Ben Bernanke has acknowledged in a speech that the Fed still has the tendency of the usage of fiscal stimulus packages (qe). Also a member of the Federal Reserve of America spoke that the budget's $ 600 billion economic stimulus plan (QE2) "figure is correct and properly estimated, " and referring to the recovery of economic growth, the possibility of providing background for implementing contractionary policies in 2012 was announced.





Technical look: As you can see in the above picture, EUR/USD in H4 is within an ascending channel, In my opinion and according to the blue Andrews fork, target is 1.4450.

Do not ever forget this sentence: in the uptrend, buying on the floor. and the downtrend, sales on the roof.

Have a nice time.

Masoud.

Masoud is a businessman and a Senior Forex Koala. Connect with him at our page on Facebook.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College.

• Quantitative Easing What Why How
• Quantitative Easing History and Effects

Masoud : Midweek EUR/USD Review 6 Apr 11

EUR/USD ST Daily Outlook 5 Apr 11

Technical Overview:

After the failed attempt on breaking above the resistance of 1.426, the EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.4175, its current critical support level. Looking at the daily chart, the lower band of the upward channel which supported the bullish trend in the past 2 months, is at 1.4165.

In addition, looking at the 30-minute chart, we can clearly see that the pair is hovering around a major support. Its short term resistance is at around 1.421.

We are still bullish on EUR/USD and holding our long positions. First short sign will be a break below 1.416. More significant sign will be a break below 1.4135 where we are placing our stop loss.







Trading Idea:

Best levels to enter LONG positions are between 1.417 and 1.419, with a stop loss at 1.4135. Take profit should be placed at 1.421, 1.426 and 1.4305.

SHORT positions should be taken only be breaking below 1.414 with a first target of 1.406 and stop loss at 1.4205.

Analysis by Signal Trader – the leading solution for Automated Trading.

Autotrade on Forex, Indices and Commodities.


RISK WARNING: Trading foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College

• Importance of stop loss and take profit

EUR/USD ST Daily Outlook 5 Apr 11

EUR/USD ST Daily Outlook 4 Apr 11

Technical Overview:

EUR/USD is starting the trading week on an important price level.

On Friday, once again the bears were defeated by the bulls which stood at the 1.404-1.406 level and blocked any break down attempt. The trend reversed and the rally was fueled by massive short covering pushing the pair to close near the 5-month high.

This morning during the Asian session, the pair tested the next resistance level at 1.426-1.427 and bounced back. Immediate support should be found at the previous resistance level between 1.4205 and 1.422. The next support level is the lower band of the channel near 1.4155 level.

We are positioning ourselves for further rally at these levels.





Trading Idea:

Best levels to enter LONG positions are between 1.42 and 1.422, with a stop loss at 1.414. Take profit should be placed at 1.43, 1.433 and 1.439. Consolidation around 1.421-1.422 will increase the chances to be followed by a significant move up toward 1.433.

SHORT positions should be taken only be breaking below 1.414 with a stop loss at 1.4205.

Analysis by Signal Trader – the leading solution for Automated Trading.

Autotrade on Forex, Indices and Commodities.


RISK WARNING: Trading foreign exchange (“Forex”), Commodity futures, options, CFDs and SpreadBetting on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial adviser if you have any doubts.

Related Forex Articles from the Koala Forex Training College

• Moving Stop Loss Limit when in a loss is a forex mistake

EUR/USD ST Daily Outlook 4 Apr 11

EUR/USD Weekly Review 2 Apr 11

Good day forex trading koalas.

A new month and a new beginning. Did you mange to make a profit from currency trading in March? I certainly hope so. Remember that proper money management is an important factor to consider in order to maximize success in forex trading.

In the previous review, we noted that the Euro Zone leaders have pretty much come to a conclusion in terms of the restructuring of the Euro Zone bail out fund. Conditions in the US are looking to be rosier too. Having said so problems such as the Portugal budget cutting woes and the weak US employment and housing markets threaten to inflict risk aversion onto the markets.





Close observation of the EUR/USD currency pair above suggests a continuum of a bullish channel since the start of March and before.

The week started with a forex gap towards the downside. I have mentioned before many times that forex gaps do happen anytime without warning and hence one must always consider the maximum risk one is comfortable with. Nonetheless, the forex gap closed and the currency pair settled into a tight range.

Midweek came and the EUR/USD hovered around the 1.4080 region due to continuing risk aversion and the downward pressure it exerted. The downgrade of Portugal and Greece by S&P contributed. Furthermore the apprehension regarding the Irish bank stress tests put out much risk appetite.

Towards the end of the week, the currency pair started to gain bullish momentum again. This was probably due to speculations regarding the possibility of an interest rate hike for the Euro Zone to combat inflation. Furthermore the US Non-Farm Payroll came out better than expected. This produced much optimism and risk taking activities intensified.

***

Things are looking better for the US. At least on the employment sector. Clocking in at 216K, the US Non-Farm Payroll was better than expected. As employment spurs consumption, this always has a vital link to play on the well being on an economy. The unemployment rate has dropped too. 8.8% brings the US one step further away from the dreaded 10%. This optimism is reflected by the rising S&P 500.

Unemployment and the dull housing market have always being the two main factors weighting on the US economy. While i mentioned that employment seems to be picking up, performance on the housing front remains below expectations. Foreclosures and low prices continue to plague the market.

A report of interest to me is the gain of Asia currencies versus the US Dollar. This is described to be happening due to the interest rate difference versus the US. Higher yielding currencies usually gain in value due to among other reasons the carry trade. This probably will have a weakening effect on the US Dollar on a whole and inevitably weaken the US Dollar in respect to the Euro Currency.

Over at the Euro Zone, continued deficit woes threaten to derail the recovery. In particularly, close monitoring must be paid towards Portugal as bond repayments approach. A bailout may weaken confidence towards the Euro Zone and the Euro Currency.

Among various important economic releases next week, brings the Euro Zone interest rate decision. Be on a look out for choppy price actions as investors speculate about an interest rate hike.

Trade Safely.

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Read more about the EUR/USD at my buddy's great blog.

Forex Crunch writes a weekly EUR/USD outlook. It is a very popular write up and he is one of the best.

EUR/USD Weekly Review 2 Apr 11