Saturday, May 7, 2011

US Non-Farm Payroll Review 6 May 11

Good day forex trading koalas.

Welcome to another monthly review of the US Non-Farm Payroll. The EUR/USD currency pair often reacts strongly to this economic event and hence it is crucial we understand it.

In the previous US Non-Farm Payroll, the NFP was better than expected. Employment increased and the unemployment rate fell. This was very positive for the sentiments toward the US economy. Risk appetite of investors and traders increased.





Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, we note that the currency pair was volatile after the announcement of the US NFP figures. With a range of over a hundred pips, the currency pair spiked upwards only to settle in a tight range before plunging further.

America's Non-Farm Employment Change was better than expected. It clocked an increase of 244k. This contributes greatly to the growing belief that the US job market is improving. A disappointment though is the overall unemployment rate which increased back to 9%.

As the conflicting figures probably cancelled out extreme spikes on either side, it resulted in a tight range before plunging further. The strengthening of the US Dollar probably resulted from another development in the market. The speculation that Greece may pull out of the Euro currency.

As the market grows accustomed to seeing positive figures from the US Non-Farm Payroll month after month, one can only imagine what will happen if a negative month is encountered.

Trade Safely.

***

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Thursday, May 5, 2011

EUR/USD Daily Review 5 May 11

Good day forex traders!

How is your trading today? Hope all is well.

In Masoud's EUR/USD Midweek Review, he mentioned that the European Central Bank will be making a decision of the interest rate of the Euro Zone. The speech that follows will be closely monitored as well for any clues to any economic policies.





Looking at the EUR/USD currency pair above, the short term range has been broken and the currency pair is dipping towards the bottom trend line.

Many investors and traders speculated that the ECB would hike the interest rate due to inflation risks. However it turned out that the European Central Bank decided to let interest rate remain at the current levels. On top of that, it was reported that Mr Trichet apparently suggested that the interest rate will probably remain at the current level in the near future. Following that, a knee jerk reaction occurred and the EUR/USD dipped.

Tomorrow brings us the US Non-Farm Payroll and hence caution is advised. As the previous few US NFP were positive, any unexpected data tomorrow will probably cause much movement in the markets.

Trade Safely.

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Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Masoud : Midweek EUR/USD Review 4 May 11

Hello koala king and folks.

Good day to you.

After the US President announced the death of Osama bin Laden, currency markets were strengthening and the US Dollar weakened. Market risk appetite increased.

The currency markets seem to have normalized and the main driving factor for the EUR/USD is probably the interest rate differential between the US and the Euro Zone. Last week, Mr. Bernanke indicated that there is no need for interest rates to be hiked for the moment.

In Europe, comments were made that the reconstruction of state bonds and debt of Greece is not a good option.

Other news released on the market is that it is likely for China to increase interest rates again to counter inflation in this country. Currently the main focus of the market and traders is probably the European Central Bank interest rate decision and news conference that will take place tomorrow.





Technical point of view:

Due to the speculated interest rate hike for the Euro Zone, the EUR/USD touched 1.49 and I believe this week will touch also 1.50. Currently it is ranging approximately 140 pips between 1.4760 and 1.49 (Green Channel). If this range is broken, we will probably see about 150 pips. Main trend is still ascending, so only buy on floors.

Have a nice time.

Masoud.

Masoud is a businessman and a Senior Forex Koala. Connect with him at our page on Facebook.

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Tuesday, May 3, 2011

EUR/USD Daily Review 3 May 11

Good day forex trading koalas.

The EUR/USD currency pair ended around the 1.48 region last week. Being a technically strong region, i mentioned that we may face certain resistance here. While we expect the US Dollar to further weaken due to various reasons, technicalities do exert influences at times.





Looking at the EURUSD chart above we note that the currency pair is still ranging tightly around the 1.48 line.

As mentioned, fundamentally the US Dollar has various reasons to continue to be bearish. For starters, the low interest rate of the US is probably fueling much of the carry trade. Low interest currencies such as the US Dollar are being sold for higher yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar AUD.

From a technical point of view, the bullish currency pair faces a double challenge here. The upper trend line of the bullish channel from the beginning of the year and the 1.48 line. Furthermore various other indicators are showing signs of an overextended bullish run. Importantly, we are also at a 3 years low on the US Dollar Index.

Tomorrow brings the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and many investors are probably waiting out for this to get a clue for the upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll. Caution is to be exercised here as people are accustomed to positive news for a few months now and any nasty surprise will probably throw volatility right into the markets.

Trade Safely.

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Monday, May 2, 2011

Masoud : EUR/USD Weekly Review 2 May 11

Hello koala king and folks.

Good day to you.

Major events last week:

Markets were quiet on the start of the new week because Europe was having the Easter holidays. On Tuesday after several days of holidays, the currency exchange market once again had returned to its natural flow. In reaction to Mr Trichet's remarks, the US dollar strengthened.

Japan also faced negative outlooks on it's bond due to the state of the economy.

The America dollar generally weakened against major currencies due to increased risk appetite. After the announcement of the America's Federal Reserve decision to keep interest rates low in the range close to zero, bearish pressure on the US Dollar was intensified. Now it is heavily speculated that the US interest rate will remain low for sometime to come.

Mr. Bernanke the US Fed chairman said at a news conference that Fed monetary policy even after the end of their quantitative easing program in June will continue. The Federal Reserve said in its statement, "the long-term interest rates will be remaining at low levels." While inflation pressures are growing, it is temporary. Forecasts indicate that the economic growth (GDP) in 2011 is associated with loss. In recent months signs of improved employment market can be seen but until the employment situation stabilizes, expansionary policies will continue to be a stimulus for economic growth. The Fed also mentioned that the strong US Dollar is good for America.

After the statement by the FOMC, market liquidity was high and the US Dollar fell against the major currencies. Mr Bernanke said he has no concerns about inflation which he believes is "transitory" and even suggested that he accepts the inflation level to help support improvement in the employment market.

A member of the European Central Bank says Europe's central bank will gradually exit all extraordinary stimulus programs. Also America GDP index in the first quarter declined to show the process of economic growth is slowing down.







Technical point of view:

Both in terms of fundamental or technical terms, it is suggestive that the Euro may further strengthen against the US Dollar. You can see in the above picture that the EUR/USD currency pair has reached the blue line to the upper forks and has reached the upper channel line orange. Main trend is still ascending and as long as market is in a risk seeking sentiment and do not change, any reduction in the Euro against the US Dollar probably means is a correction.

Due to market conditions for the next week, I believe prices will touch 1.50. However to maintain a foothold above 1.50, the market has a need for newer economic data.

Have a great weekend.

Masoud.

Masoud is a businessman and a Senior Forex Koala. Connect with him at our page on Facebook.

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